https://www.kerrydougherty.com/allposts/2020/4/9/did-shoddy-science-shut-down-america

I wouldn’t go as far as Dougherty does in her title to say that the science was shoddy. Instead, I would emphasize that too many people misunderstood the science, or misrepresented it for all the usual reasons. As a result, we are still dealing with Chicken Little thinking in too much of our public discourse.

The science says that herd immunity is the only way to stop the pandemic. I was very pleased, therefore, to hear the president announce yesterday that he is forming a new task force to come up with ways to re-open the economy. The move makes perfect sense, once you conceive that there are practical ways to manage the development of the herd immunity we need.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ron-paul-trump-should-fire-fauci-he-wants-have-total-control-over-people

I’m sympathetic to Ron Paul’s thinking, but I’m not eager to see Fauci fired yet.

Continue reading “ZH: Ron Paul: Trump Should Fire Fauci, He Wants “To Have Total Control Over The People”” →

https://pjmedia.com/trending/breaking-fbi-knew-before-mueller-probe-that-hillarys-steele-dossier-was-russian-disinformation/

I expect we’ll be hearing more about this, because statutory violations are likely at play. Of particular interest: The fantasy that Trump and/or his campaign subordinates were Russian assets is becoming increasing difficult to sustain. Cognitive dissonance.

Scott Adams made a point in yesterday’s video that I’d like to share. You can watch the video here, but the point he made is simple enough to convey in a few words: Models (like the IHME model CDC is using to forecast the coronavirus in America) are NOT meant to be accurate, they are meant to useful — typically in a way to convince others to take some action or another.

Continue reading “Models are NOT Meant to be Accurate” →

Link to source.

Quarantine requirements have unintended consequences for health care in Virginia. Is it too much to want to see more carefully-designed public policy in the midst of this pandemic?

Link to source.

Don Bourdreax asks: “how much more effective would the washing of hands be in America if government had never foisted on us those monuments to absurdity, low-flow faucets?”

As sure as I post this, someone will accuse me of some thought crime or another. Nevertheless, I find the Dr.’s observations both intriguing and consistent with other things we are hearing — the failure of the IHME data model we learned about last weekend, for example.

The main idea in the video is the suggestion that “flattening the curve” also broadens it. This seems like pure common sense to me, although I had never thought about it. More than that — if true — it would mean that our public policy on Covid-19 should be much more nuanced than it is.

In particular, serological testing should be given a much higher priority than it currently enjoys. I’d like to see Dr.s Fauci and Birx report the number of serological tests each day in the daily briefing and explain the results. Without this data, the public can’t know the true status of the disease and, frankly, is suceptible to being mislead by public health officials and media who promote policies that are scientifically questionable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

I see lots of comments here in the Forum to the effect that Covid-19 could have been predicted and we could have been better prepared for it, but nearly all such commentary is, in my view, irrational and a waste of time.

Continue reading “Covid-19 is a Black Swan” →

Link to source.

The Richmond publication Bacon’s Rebellion opines today that the data on the VHHA dashboard is more comprehensive and meaningful than the data on the Virginia Department of Health web site.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/a_better_way_to_handle_the_coronavirus.html

The writer makes the useful point that we must unwind from our response to Covid-19 soon, especially our reliance on social distancing. Public immunity testing is increasingly discussed as a viable approach.

Personally, I wouldn’t mind having to pass a test prior to entering a restaurant, workplace or hotel, but I suspect that testing at that level may not become necessary as strong therapeutic treatments (e.g., hydroxychloroquine) become more widespread. I would, however, oppose government issue of “immunity cards.”

It occurs to me, too, that immunity to SARS-Cov-2, may be more common that we have imagined. I’d be interested to hear a scientific opinion on levels of immunity that would be sufficient to allow the relaxation of social distancing guidelines.