Avoiding a Long War

Uncategorized 1 Minute

Source: Rand Corporation.

The Rand Corporation has published an analysis that recommends a shift in U.S. policy on the war in Ukraine. Specifically, Rand asserts that avoiding a protracted continuation of the conflict should be America’s highest priority. More significantly, Rand acknowledges that the restoration of Ukrainian territory to the pre-war borders is not a goal the U.S. can or should pursue.

Territorial control, although immensely important to Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the war’s future for the United States. We conclude that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control. Furthermore, the U.S. ability to micromanage where the line is ultimately drawn is highly constrained since the U.S. military is not directly involved in the fighting. Enabling Ukraine’s territorial control is also far from the only instrument available to the United States to affect the trajectory of the war. We have highlighted several other tools — potentially more potent ones — that Washington can use to steer the war toward a trajectory that better promotes U.S. interests.

Rand is saying, in effect, that it is time to start ending the war now. Or, alternatively, that our current strategy isn’t working. Or, bluntly, Ukraine has lost; time to move on.

Published by John Todd Roberts

Published

58 thoughts on “Avoiding a Long War”

    1. As he should.

      Only after Putin is gone will a just and lasting peace be possible. You do not reach peace agreements with a monster who will break the agreement as soon as he recovers from the losses inflicted on him at great cost by Ukraine.

      Liked by 2 people

      Reply

        1. “Still willing to fight on to the last Ukrainian.”

          Still eager to stab them in the back? Like your Dear Leader did to the Kurds and the Afghans.

          My position has been and still is that if Ukraine want to resist this monstrous aggression and they ask for our help, we should give it. Your position is let the fascist aggressor have his way. I believe in democracy. You hate democracy and believe that might make right. We will never agree. Never.

          Liked by 2 people

          Reply

    3. So if your neighbors moves into your garage and then lobs grenades into your house, you would just surrender?

      Putin never wanted just Crimea and Donbas. His rants about Russian history and Ukrainian lack of sovereignty pretty much says what he wants.

      Liked by 3 people

      Reply

      1. RE: “So if your neighbors moves into your garage and then lobs grenades into your house, you would just surrender?”

        Your argument is with Rand, not me or Dr. Tabor. Is there something in Rand’s analysis you disagree with?

        Like

        Reply

        1. “ Specifically, Rand asserts that avoiding a protracted continuation of the conflict should be America’s highest priority.”

          Avoiding on our terms, Ukrainian terms or Putin’s terms?

          Liked by 3 people

          Reply

        2. “Is there something in their analysis you disagree with?”

          As reported by you (the link is broken) their fundamental premises are wrong. . .
          1. “Rand asserts that avoiding a protracted continuation of the conflict should be America’s highest priority. ”

          1. “More significantly, Rand acknowledges that the restoration of Ukrainian territory to the pre-war borders is not a goal the U.S. can or should pursue.”

          2. Our highest priority is that Ukraine should achieve its goals. Our interests are aligned. They do not want to be ruled by Putin and we do not want the international order based on the rule of law to be overturned by aggression.

          3. We most certainly CAN pursue the goal of Ukraine recovering its stolen territories. And, in my opinion, we SHOULD pursue that goal.

          Liked by 2 people

          Reply

          3. Good. Now, with the corrected link in hand, you can tell us how Rand’s premises are wrong.

            Like

          5. RE: “I have already made clear why I do not accept their two premises.”

            No, you haven’t. Read the paper, then get back to us.

            Like

        3. RE: “Avoiding on our terms, Ukrainian terms or Putin’s terms?”

          Our terms. Which, as quoted, doesn’t include seeking the restoration of territory.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Our terms are irrelevant. A peaceful country was ILLEGALLY and IMMORALLY invaded by it’s overly aggressive, PARANOID neighbor for no other reason but to eliminate Ukraine as an independent country.

            Should we facilitate an end to this war? Sure. But for those who constantly say that Zelensky is being unreasonable, look the the history of the past year of the conflict where Russia agreed to cease fires for humanitarian reasons, only to attack the areas in question. Not to mention the daily attacks on CIVILIANS, civilian infrastructure and NON-MILITARY targets.

            I do not see Ukraine’s demand as unreasonable when the Russians have reneged time and time again, have committed war crimes DAILY, and cannot be trusted as currently led.

            Liked by 1 person

      2. Amazing how you know Putin’s inner mind so well.

        I’ll go by what he has repeatedly offered as terms for an immediate cease fire.

        It is Zelensky, likely under the control of the CIA, that won’t let go of the war.

        Like

        Reply

          1. Most recently

            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-orders-36-hour-weekend-cease-fire-in-ukraine/ar-AA160jyd

            Previously

            https://news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-negotiations-west-certain-094905039.html

            And prior to that

            https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kyiv-putin-negotiate-conflict-1682648

            and prior to the invasion

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/02/15/putin-says-hes-willing-to-negotiate-but-wont-rule-out-war/?sh=20d773715b58

            In every case, Zelensky refused to even talk without surrender first.

            Like

          3. Your policy is getting those patriots killed for nothing, mine accepts reality and lets those left go home to their families.

            Which of us hates them?

            Like

          4. They won’t be their homes if Russia eliminates Ukraine.

            You hate freedom unless it is yours. Your constant drumbeat against Ukrainians standing for their existence is maddening. If we had it your way, we would still be under British control, Poland would be a vassal state of Germany, and Britain would have been burned to the ground.

            Liked by 1 person

          6. Why would they be living under tyranny?

            Only about 15% of Ukraine is in dispute. and the people in the Eastern Oblasts WANT to be part of Russia.

            The Ukrainians are being used to bleed Russia and the give US defense contractors business.

            Like

          7. You really think that the minority Russians of Donbas should determine what the majority wants.

            Of course you do.

            Putin took Crimea. Then it started an insurgency among the Russian minorities, helped by Russian military. Then on to Kyiv.

            The whole premise of the invasion was a lie obviously, since Russia is firing missiles all over the country, but they can hardly take control of the two Oblasts they wanted in the first place. And they are using “human waves” of hapless prisoners and conscripts to even accomplish a minor victory.

            Liked by 1 person

          9. The Ukrainians are being helped, not used. Your constant Putin apologetics and spin is pathetic. And doubly so from someone who struts and poses as a gun-toting defender of liberty over tyranny.

            Russia is the aggressor as it has been for centuries. Ukraine is not resisting in a vacuum. They have long memories of the abuse they have received at the hands of Russia including attempted genocide.

            SOME people in Ukraine would like to be part of Russia just like SOME people in our country would like to be part of Mexico. Too bad for both. Their ‘druthers are not a legitimate casus belli for them or for their neighbors. Sudetenland all over again is Putin’s go to tactic. Georgia, Crimea and now Donbas. He has tried it one too many times and the free world had taken notice.

            Liked by 1 person

          11. “… lets those left go home to their families.”

            I am sure they will be treated so well by Russian occupiers. Just like the folks rounded up, raped, tortured and killed by drunken savages in earlier occupied towns. There are few Ukrainians that want to be ruled by the butcher of Moscow.

            Those whose parents and grandparents were murdered by Stalin are now seeing their children murdered by Putin. You are armed to take on our own government that you may deem unacceptable for taxes, regulations or some other perceived slights. Yet you cannot grasp the feelings of a people who have been slaughtered by the millions over time by Russian despots.

            Like I have said before we Americans haven’t a clue what is like to defend against invaders and occupiers. By Ukraine standards, we have few real patriots. Showing up at rallies with Confederate colors and armed to the teeth doesn’t compare. Keeping Russian borders away from Europe is now more important than ever considering Putin’s invasion of a sovereign nation.

            Liked by 2 people

          13. “ No official comment was made on the claims of treason or reports that Kireev was killed by Ukrainian authorities.

            The discrepancies between the two conflicting accounts of his death could not be immediately accounted for.”

            But you obviously have the inside track.

            Liked by 3 people

          14. RE: “But you obviously have the inside track.”

            Not at all. As the Times of Israel reports, the negotiator was killed by Ukrainian state security forces. That is not in dispute.

            Like

          16. RE: “I believe your article said such was not confirmed.”

            No. It said the allegation of treason was not confirmed. As is the claim that the negotiator was killed serving his country (Ukraine).

            Like

        2. “It is Zelensky, likely under the control of the CIA, that won’t let go of the war.”

          You mean he won’t surrender and let his country be dismembered without a fight.

          As far as “likely under the control of the CIA” goes, that is utter and complete nonsense. You have absolutely no evidence of any kind to support such a claim.

          Liked by 3 people

          Reply

          2. Your funny. That is almost exactly what Giuliani said to the AZ speaker. He was a bit more honest, however. He said “we have no evidence, just theories”.

            Must be a right wing thing, I suppose.

            Liked by 3 people

          3. “The claim doesn’t need any evidence.”

            Sure, just like every other lie, slander, “alternative fact,” and half-assed opinion that are the hallmarks of MAGA-Republicanism. No evidence needed at all.

            Liked by 3 people

          5. Oh My! Cookies!

            It is okay with you people for Putin to invade neighbors, murder people in the thousands, and steal their land. It is okay with you people for Putin to push Britain out of the EU. It is okay with you people for Putin to put Donald Trump in the Oval Office. But it is oh so wrong of the United States to offer cookies to pro-democracy demonstrators.

            If you are offering this CATO opinion piece to support your claim that Zelensky is under the control of the CIA then you are more foolish than even I believed. It was written in 2017. Study it carefully. You will not find the name Zelensky anywhere. He was still a TV comedian in 2017.

            Liked by 2 people

          6. RE: “Must be a right wing thing, I suppose.”

            Get smart, Rothman. Dr. Tabor’s claim was stated as an opinion, not as a fact. Don’t you take offense when your own opinions are challenged on a factual basis?

            Like

  2. Your title says “Avoiding a Long War,” but then you are suggesting Rand says “Ukraine has lost; time to move on.”

    HINT: When a country has lost a war, it doesn’t continue for a long time.

    Ukraine, with the army and resources of a small country, has fought what was once called a “super power” to a stand still. I don’t call that losing.

    They pushed back the invaders and, until the winter set in, they were kicking Russian ass all the way back to the border. When Spring arrives and those Leopard 2s get online, I suspect the retreat will continue. The Ukrainian people are willing to fight and die if necessary to be free. If we don’t help people like that when they’re asking for our help, shame, and eternal shame, on us!

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    1. You’ve watched Red Dawn too many times.

      Zelensky is currently extraditing military aged men who fled to other countries for more cannon fodder. Both sides are relying on conscripts.

      The realities of the outcome have never been on question, it’s just a matter of how many Ukrainians will die for us to bleed Russia, for no good reason I can see.

      Russia is not going to give up its port.

      Expect Russia to get really brutal about finishing Ukraine off before those tanks can be made operational.

      Like

      Reply

      1. I have never seen Red Dawn.

        You are thinking about Russia. They are trying to extradite men who have fled their draft. https://theweek.com/russia/1017914/russias-catastrophic-missing-men-problem
        “I feel like we are a country of women now,” Moscow resident Stanislava, 33, told the Times. “I was searching for male friends to help me move some furniture, and I realized almost all of them had left.”

        The realities of war are always in question. The biggest dog doesn’t always win the fight. If they did Charles would be your king now.

        The Ukrainians are dying for their freedom, not for us to bleed Russia. The Ukrainian people are asking the West for weapons, not troops, to fight their own war. No one is forcing weapons upon them.

        The port is not Russia’s port. It was stolen from Ukraine.

        Russia will also steal Ukraine’s grain if it can. Ukraine is the bread basket of much of the world. Russia wants that. The power of oil isn’t enough for them. They want the power of food too.

        Russia has been “brutal,” violating the Geneva Convention, bombing civilians, and committing war crimes from day one. Ukraine is still asking for weapons. Ukrainians are still fighting. And that damn well deserves respect!

        Liked by 2 people

        Reply

        1. RE: “Russia has been ‘brutal,’ violating the Geneva Convention, bombing civilians, and
          committing war crimes from day one.”

          You should learn about Ukraine’s war crimes. Ukrainian bombing of civilians in Donetsk, for example:

          Like

          Reply

    2. RE: “HINT: When a country has lost a war, it doesn’t continue for a long time.”

      Yes, that’s why I think the Rand paper is important. The neo-cons and military analysts who wrote it have determined that Ukraine is in trouble. It has been more than three months since Ukrained gained even an inch of territory and its personnel and equipment losses have been catastrophic. Meanwhile, the 380,000 regular army troops Russia has fielded since its partial mobilization haven’t even entered the battle yet.

      Ukraine is done. Rand Corporation is telling you so, even if the NYT, WAPO and WSJ aren’t, yet.

      Like

      Reply

      1. “Ukraine is done.” Yeah, that’s what you were saying last February too.

        It has been three months since either side has gained an inch of territory. HELLO! It’s winter in the north countries!! The Nazis didn’t take much territory around Leningrad in January either.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply

        1. RE: “It has been three months since either side has gained an inch of territory.”

          Not true. Russia captured Soledar a couple of weeks ago and has nearly encircled Bahkmut. These are two significant advancements, but if you follow the daily battlefield reports, Russia has been making incremental advances every day all across the battlefront since thwarting the Ukrainian counteroffensives from Karkov and Kerson.

          Like

          Reply

          1. Yeah, I saw the Wagner Group took a salt mine and rubbed it in Putin’s face. I hardly consider that “an inch.” It was more a victory over the Russian army than the Ukrainian army.

            Liked by 3 people

          2. RE: “It was more a victory over the Russian army than the Ukrainian army.”

            You are exceptionally misinformed. The capture of Soledar moved the Russian line of control about 30 miles into Ukrainian territory, and gave Russia fire control over a number of major roads and railroad lines.

            Please get back to us when you are up to speed and capable of speaking intelligently about the war.

            Like

          5. “These are two significant advancements”…

            They are more symbolic that strategic. It gives Russia a “win”, but with the lowest hanging fruit.

            Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Cancel

Connecting to %s