Vaccines show declining effectiveness against infection overall but strong protection against hospitalization amid delta variant

Source: The Washington Post, via MSN.

A couple of weeks ago media were widely promoting 98% as the ratio of unvaccinated Covid-19 patients to vaccinated patients in hospitals. This item today reports that breakthrough infections account for about 15% to 20% of hospitalizations. That’s a big difference, a shift of almost 20%.

The likely explanation is that the earlier percentage was just a guesstimate, whereas the newer percentages are data-driven.

I’m not inclined to speculate on what the data is telling us, except to note that you can’t really blame hospital capacity shortages on the unvaccinated with so many vaccinated patients taking up beds.

The breakthrough infection hospitalization rate bears watching.

9 thoughts on “Vaccines show declining effectiveness against infection overall but strong protection against hospitalization amid delta variant

  1. …”you can’t really blame hospital capacity shortages on the unvaccinated ”

    Sure you can. 80% is still a SUPER Majority of hospitalizations.

    And which are the vaccinated patients that are suffering from breakthrough infection? Are they the immunocompromised or the ones with other pre-existing conditions? It is not just the rate, but the who that bears watching.

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  2. Uh, that’s still 80% of hospitalizations being unvaccinated, and the current spread is primarily BY unvaccinated people, so yes, though I defend the right of people to refuse vaccination, unvaccinated people are largely responsible for the current surge.

    Note, of course, that many of those people are children for whom vaccination is not yet available.

    But those who chose not to vaccinate do have a moral obligation to quarantine at the first sign of infection and to mask when around others if there is any chance they have been exposed.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I find a disconnect between Texas bringing in portable morgues and Abbott suing localities for COVID mandates.

      Is this the band playing while the ship sinks?

      Liked by 2 people

    2. RE: “Uh, that’s still 80% of hospitalizations being unvaccinated…”

      Yes, it is, and that raises the question, is 80% a sufficient ratio to hang moral judgement on?

      Just to prevent witch huntery, I am pointing out that that 20% of total capacity is enough to cause a bed shortage, given the capacity margins a typical hospital operates under.

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      1. You seem to be giving the 80% a pass and trying to put ALL of the onus on the breakthroughs.

        And it is NOT 20% of total bed capacity; it is 20% of those being hospitalized with COVID while having been vaccinated.

        Not to mention you did not address my point about WHO is suffering from breakthroughs.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. 80% is 4 times 20%, so yes.

        Of course, there is no moral judgment on children who cannot yet be vaccinated.

        But for adults who chose not to vaccinate and don’t live on mountaintops in Idaho, there is a moral responsibility for the Delta surge.

        Part of the price of living in a relatively free society is such unintended injury from other’s freedom of choice.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. “ Part of the price of living in a relatively free society is such unintended injury from other’s freedom of choice.”

          Except the consequences are not unintended in the sense that we know the consequences of not getting vaccinated. The evidence is right in front of our faces in the “laboratory of states”. Huge surges and hospitalizations in the low-vax states. And that fills up the hospitals excluding from treatment those non-COVID illnesses and injuries as well as delaying elective procedures.

          If a celebrant shoots into the air in a moment of exhilaration, the unintended consequence is killing, injuring people or damaging property. 2nd Amendment has limits too. Freedom carries responsibility and that includes for “unintended consequences”.

          Liked by 1 person

      3. “ The third report, an analysis of patients at 21 hospitals in 18 states, found sustained protection against hospitalization. Effectiveness was steady at 86 percent, even in the midsummer months when delta outcompeted other variants of concern. For adults who do not have compromised immune systems, that effectiveness stood at 90 percent.”

        Per your link, one of several studies either ongoing or needing peer review.

        The numbers last week were specific to the most affected hospitals in the most affected states like FL, TX, LA, MS, AL, AZ etc.

        Vaccines never were touted as 100% effective. So people will get sick if unlucky. And if old, might get hospitalized and/or die.

        Until and unless we can vaccinate everyone in the world, or at least 70-80%, variants will continue to form and vaccines tweaked.

        Can’t say that I am thrilled at masking again, but I would be less thrilled if I caught a break through infection. My mask will at least keep my aerosol spreading minimal, I wish others would do the same. Not a real sacrifice, just common decency.

        Or apparently, uncommon decency.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. “Infections in unvaccinated people are the bigger problem by far,” said Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. “They get infected more; they get sicker; and they likely transmit virus more readily.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/7-vaccinated-florida-patients-die-covid-nurse-calls-situation-disturbing-1620118

    Yes, breakthroughs happen. Percentages are varying dependent upon reports and analysis, not all peer reviewed yet.

    Liked by 1 person

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