The wobbling moon and flooding

Wobbling moon 18.6 year cycle.

This is bound to get mis-reported so I’ll get ahead of it.

There is an 18.6 year cycle of wobble in the moon’s orbit. In the negative phase, this wobble suppresses the difference between high and low tide, and in the positive phase it enhances highs and lows. We are entering the positive phase.

This will affect flooding in low lying areas like Sandbridge, but most areas won’t be affected much. Of course, the alarmists are warning that next time, in the 2030s this will combine with higher sea levels to bring catastrophic flooding.

Sea level is rising at a rate of about 1/8 inch per year, so I don’t really see how a 3 inch higher base will make that much difference. The dire projections are just more climate fear porn.

But since that’s almost 20 years in the future, and the memory of the press is about 2 weeks, there will be no consequences then the catastrophe fails to show up.

8 thoughts on “The wobbling moon and flooding

  1. Interesting. We are in the wobble stage that SUPPRESSES tides, yet we still have blue sky flooding occurring regularly in this area. And this report seems to say that as the seas rise (which they are) and the wobble gets to the PUSH level, it will just be “normal” in your mind?

    By trying to get ahead of this, you are falling behind on the realities. And while your compound doesn’t flood on a sunny day, there are several neighborhoods in the area that do. Add in our sinking ground and we could have some serious issues in 10 years if mitigation strategies aren’t developed and IMPLEMENTED!


    1. Not exactly, we are nearing the peak of the positive phase. The peak is 2025 and the next peak is 2034.

      Sea level will increase by about 3 inches in between.

      Subsidence varies more than that in some areas.

      But the point is that the flooding has causes other than climate change. Sea level has been rising at about the same rate since 1830, as the Little Ice Age ended, Some papers suggest the rate of sea level rise has increased by about 0,8mm a year, so climate change will add about 2/3rds of an inch to existing rise between the 2025 and 2034 peaks.

      But yes, we need to prepare for the combined effects of natural cycles, subsidence, and human input to sea level.

      But that means resiliency, not hopeless efforts to stop the rise.


      1. “But that means resiliency, not hopeless efforts to stop the rise.”

        That is what I said. Mitigation strategies towards resiliency. But cutting back on carbon emissions to slow the effects of manmade changes is also necessary, And it won’t “blow up the economy”. Just because you says so don’t make it factual.


        1. So, you’re saying that reducing that 2/3rds of an inch resulting from human activity to 1/2 an inch is worth trying to get rid of fossil fuels?

          Could we not just build the seawalls we have to build anyway 1/6 of an inch higher?


  2. I dont think the wobble was sufficiently explained. Tides are caused by the moon’s gravitational pull so in order for the moon to affect tides differently the oval of the orbit would have be elongated more. In that case the moon would be closer at some point in the orbit (higher tide) and farther away at other points of the orbit (lower tides). It just doesn’t seem like a “wobble” to me but I don’t work at NASA either. In any case, I think the story was a heavily exaggerated doomsday prediction.


      1. In moderation, nothing.

        But the mitigation required to deal with sea level rise will not be cheap. We can afford it in most places, but if we wreck our economy pursuing zero carbon, we won’t have the wealth necessary to build those flood control structures.

        Choose one,


        1. Just because you say that our economy will be wrecked does not make it true. New tech and the jobs that come with them will support the transition.

          Your economical fear porn concerning this issue is noted.


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