Excess testing capacity?

Coronavirus press conference

It turns out that we do have the testing capacity for Phase 1, but states are only using 1/3 of our capacity.  The inadequate rate of testing turns out to be a local failure due to shortages of testing manpower, PPEs and supplies, and not a lack of testing capacity deployed by the Federal government and private sector.

17 thoughts on “Excess testing capacity?

  1. RE: “The inadequate rate of testing turns out to be a local failure due to shortages of testing manpower, PPEs and supplies, and not a lack of testing capacity deployed by the Federal government and private sector.”

    That was my impression of today’s daily briefing, as well. The federal coordinators have been doing a very good and impressive job. Too bad the naysayers can’t see it.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I have been watching some of the briefings and it has always appeared to me the feds are doing quite well allocating resources where needed and not over committing anywhere. I have always gotten the impression that the news is sensationalizing for obvious reasons and things are not as they portray. Now here are but I’m sure our progressive friends will still claim it’s a lie and Trump is responsible for no testing capability. Rolling my eyes…

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  3. Have you noticed how lots of testing is turning up lotsa asymptomatic infections? “Why it’s 80x more than the reported cases!”

    Uh, yeah. It’s all driven by false alarms.

    This is what keeps treasure hunters going.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. “Nancy, I don’t undsertand that stupid equation you put up. I’m a Conservative. I believe in God and truth and right. I don’t believe in mathematics.”

    “Besides, we will test everyone so what does it matter?”

    Okay, let’s test everyone using that device. Let’s go into a community of 100,000, say Roanoke, and look at what we have, and might get.

    Roanoke– population 96,700, COV2 cases confirmed 24.
    Let’s assume there are absolutely none unreported.

    Well, if we test with a machine that detects 97% of infections, you will get 24×0.97=23… meh, call it 24. Got ’em all.

    It will also get false alarms. Let’s be generous. Let’s say the false alarms are not 5%. Let’s say it’s 1/2%, 0.005×96,676. That’s 483 cases.

    “Okay so what does that mean?”
    “Well, they’re false alarms. Those people were NEVER sick.”
    “What? You mean asymptomatic?
    “No, I mean never sick.”
    “But, but, but, that means they never were immune. They could get sick!”
    “Right.”

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Testing, like anything else has to have a purpose. Okay, suppose it is 100% at detecting people who are or were sick, it’s the false alarm rate that will drive the results until such time as the positives far exceed the 480 expected false alarms.

        If the city of Roanoke tests everyone, they gain no more information than testing, say 5000. They’all have an expected number of false alarms, 25, and they can use probability and statistics to estimate the infection rate. The can follow those positives.

        The big thing is they do not waste 95,000 tests.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Two different issues: one on the statistically valid percentages that the 5,000 tests could probably provide.

          The second on the individual positive/false positive issue that is the sticking point that you’ve laboriously pointed out.

          Combined we’ll know WHAT the situation is relative to infections versus false positives, but we won’t really know WHO is in which category until the test is definitive which arguably makes testing everyone somewhat useless.

          Liked by 1 person

  5. “… be a local failure due to shortages of testing manpower, PPEs and supplies,”

    Why is that a “local failure” in the case of a worldwide pandemic. If the states are supposed to replace the SNS and have on hand trained people for a pandemic, perhaps this should have been policy enacted in 2017 so they could prepare.

    The reg for the SNS was changed a few weeks back to fit the new narrative of Kushner that it is “just a backup”. But do you really think the states are at fault when the rules change on a whim? The whim being the realization that the administration was totally unprepared.

    What the administration has done is to force Americans to compete against one another for lifesaving supplies in a national crisis. Oh, and telling them that this is the new policy as of mid-March.

    And then blaming the governors to take the heat of off the president.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Refer to Article I section 8 and the 10th Amendment, and show me where the Federal government even has the authority, much less the duty, to make such preparations.

      But again, the testing infrastructure is in place and has been assembled on a very short time. largely by relying on the private sector to repurpose existing equipment. The failure is at the local level where there aren’t enough people trained to do the testing and not enough basic stuff like swabs and transport medium.

      Do you really expect federal inspectors to be searching through hospitals and doctors offices to see if they have enough supplies on hand? And to have done it BEFORE the coronavirus appeared? Where would they find the authority to command hospitals and doctors to have stockpiles they might never use? Or to hire and train personnel who would then be idle for years.

      There is no nation on Earth that was ready for this, nor was the US ready for it had it occurred in 2016, but hindsight is sharp.

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      1. So SNS was illegal? Reread the Constitution where it says we can make laws.

        Your line of thinking says that if we were invaded, the states should use National Guard and militias.

        If they need help the Army is standing by. Although the Constitution does not call for a standing Army either.

        The Constitution does insist that if state militias are needed, Congress will supply them.

        (Trump said he is a wartime president, so we have that conundrum, too.)

        We had more time to check our preparedness and plans than most other countries. While Europe was getting hit, we just ignored that and called for a warm April.

        To say that we were surprised, did all we could to prepare and the feds are not involved are not true statements.

        Most presidents get tested by some form of a crisis. This is Trump’s test. Unfortunately for him, and us, denial and hoping for a warm April are not good responses to a pandemic.

        But it is what we got from the regime.

        So here we are.

        Liked by 2 people

      2. @Tabor

        It has been going on for three years now, and it remains very, very odd. I am referring to people like you abandoning everything that you used to say you stood for to make excuses for this dunce who has predictably failed in just about every possible way.

        Testing is just one more area of obvious malfeasance. Leaving aside that whatever failures occurred at CDC or whatever bureaucratic roadblocks were thrown up FDA and that Trump manages both agencies, he has been saying for at least eight weeks that there are tests for everyone who needs to be tested. It has always been and remains a lie. And lying does not help.

        I would add that these desperate attempts to shift the blame to the states has an obvious political motive as noted by Politico . . .

        https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/21/trump-coronavirus-testing-197839

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Does the President have the authority to close schools in VA? Order hospitals to defer elective surgery? Order restaurants to close?

          Nope. But the Governor does.

          And the testing infrastructure for Phase 1 is in place, but only being used by the States at 1/3 capacity.

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          1. Why? So governors, both Republicans and Democrats, can kill their own people to piss off Trump.

            Or could it be that the governors are not lying about lack of reagents, supplies, etc.

            And that Trump is lying.

            PS: if all this testing is in place, why did Maryland’s governor, through connection by his wife, have to get 500,000 test flown in from S. Korea?

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Did you watch the link I provided yesterday?

            Maryland’s test facilities were specifically addressed. Many of the facilities are private sector and university based.

            But why is it that you think the Federal government is responsible for providing supplies and personnel and not the governors? Should the states not provide something?

            And Trump has repeatedly told the states that if they can get something faster, to go ahead and get it, the the Federal government will back them on the cost. What is wrong with that?

            Every state has a health dept that regulates hospitals and medical professionals and allocates resources in an emergency. Today, I had to drive to Suffolk for my phelbotomy and removal of excess red cells due to my polycythemia. The reasion I had to go there instead of here in Chesapeake is that the governor had the local infusion center shut down and it’s equipment transferred to the temporary facility being set up at the convention center. (I’m not criticizing the decision) Governors can do that, the President cannot.

            Under our Constitution, there are powers and responsibilities at both the state and Federal level.

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  6. Seeing as states did not have access to military and federal testing sites until AFTER yesterday’s campaign rally, it is hard to say the states were not using full capacity available. (see my flip flop post for details)

    Liked by 1 person

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