Since the beginning of the Ukraine war U.S. media has promoted the narrative that Russia’s economy will be wrecked by the conflict. Now — seemingly all of a sudden — the IMF says:

Russia’s economy, hit by sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, has proved sturdier than expected, too: The IMF’s forecast foresees Russia registering 0.3% growth this year. That would mark an improvement from a contraction of 2.2% in 2022. And it’s well above the 2.3% contraction for 2023 that the IMF had forecast for Russia in October.

Continue reading “Not Winning One Way, Not Winning Another” →

Source: Bacon’s Rebellion.

HooRah! Virginia has a current budget surplus of $3.6 billion. I’m all for giving all of it back to taxpayers, but if only 1/3 comes back, that’s good, too.

Given that there are 6.6 million adults in Virginia, my share would be a little under $200. Twice that with my wife’s share, or about 1/10 the price of the new sofa we’ve been eyeballing.

I should think the General Assembly can do us right over such a pittance.

Joe Biden not long ago insisted that sending tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine would be the start of World War III. Now he has promised to send tanks and there is talk of sending F-16s.

If conditions in Ukraine are as Doug Macgregor describes them, Joe Biden will be throwing good money after bad.

Continue reading “A Sunk-cost Fallacy” →

Source: Moon of Alabama.

Recent reports that battlefield conditions in Ukraine are unfavorable to the prospect of Ukrainian victory are inspiring some commentators to explore the possibility of a U.S.-led invasion to end the war decisively. Moon of Alabama thinks a U.S. invasion is unlikely.

I hope MoA is right.

It is almost a rule of life that politicizing a social issue makes the underlying realities harder to see. Here is a different approach:

Continue reading “Concentrate Where the Murders Are Concentrated” →

Click me.

Source: Rand Corporation.

The Rand Corporation has published an analysis that recommends a shift in U.S. policy on the war in Ukraine. Specifically, Rand asserts that avoiding a protracted continuation of the conflict should be America’s highest priority. More significantly, Rand acknowledges that the restoration of Ukrainian territory to the pre-war borders is not a goal the U.S. can or should pursue.

Continue reading “Avoiding a Long War” →

The United States has earned a somewhat shameful reputation:

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has been by far the world’s most dangerous nation. Although Russia is now a contender for that title after last year’s invasion of Ukraine, America has attacked more countries, created more chaos, and caused more civilian casualties than has Moscow even now. For China, one would have to go back a half century to the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution to find its government causing comparable human harm, and that was to its own population.

I do not think the peoples of the world are unaware of our record or haven’t begun to fear us. Nor do I think that “we the people” of the U.S. ever told our leaders to cause the harm they have caused.

But here we are.

Source: ZeroHedge.

Some liken the resignations of top officials to rats leaving a sinking ship. Others claim that Zelensky ordered the resignations as part of a pure-hearted anti-corruption effort. Another possibility is that the shakeup is preparation for a new phase of the war.

I am somewhat inclined toward the last of those speculations, given Germany’s sudden decision to provide tanks to Ukraine.

Source: Institute for Political Economy.

I disagree with the writer about Joe Biden’s classified documents scandal. I cannot dispute his theory that the scandal reflects a deep state conspiracy to prevent Biden from running for a second presidential term, but I am more inclined to a different view that is vastly more sinister.

(Briefly, my view is that the deep state put Biden in office because he is incompetent. Here is a commentary that explores that possibility.)

Still, the writer cogently portrays the deep state from the perspective of someone who has worked at the highest levels of government. I certainly agree with him that America as founded no longer exists.