Source: Wall Street Journal (free link).
WSJ makes the obvious point that publication of classified military documents in wartime is unfortunate. In this case, “The leaks are especially damaging because they disclose secret U.S. judgments about the progress of the war.”
It will surprise many that the U.S. assessment is not favorable. WSJ says, “The most troubling leak is that Ukraine’s air defenses could be defeated by May, which would give Russia air superiority and a huge tactical advantage.”
Although WSJ doesn’t mention it, I’m told the leaked documents also provide casualty estimates as of March 1, 2023:
- Ukrainian KIA: 70,0000
- Russian KIA: 17,000
Some sources dispute those estimates for various reasons, whereas others claim the 4:1 ratio at least corresponds to U.S./NATO military opinion on the subject of casualties.
Personally, I’m less interested in the leak itself and its consequences for the war effort than in the possibility that it reveals our leaders have been lying to us about Ukrainian successes and Russian failures.
Tidewater News and Opinion Forum 
…” I’m told the leaked documents also provide”
Who told you?
And do those Ukrainian numbers include civilians? Because there are NO Russian civilians jeopardized in this.
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“One of the documents (not on the Donbass Devushka site), according to the NY TImes, gave casualty figures as of 1 March 2023 of 17,000 Russian KIA and 70,000 Ukrainian KIA. But military analysts talking to the Times claim, ‘that some original documents which document Ukrainian and Russian casualties have been modified behind a Moscow disinformation effort.'”
https://sonar21.com/nato-intel-leak-or-disinformation/
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…”‘that some original documents which document Ukrainian and Russian casualties have been modified behind a Moscow disinformation effort.'”
And the “Moscow disinformation effort” doesn’t cause you to wonder just a bit concerning accuracy?
There have been several reports from several different outlets discussing the “modification” of the original documents. I remain skeptical about any information coming out about this right now.
But the entire situation is cause for great concern.
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RE: “And the ‘Moscow disinformation effort’ doesn’t cause you to wonder just a bit concerning accuracy?”
No more than usual. Did I not point out that the KIA numbers were disputed by some sources?
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“No more than usual”
Considering you propensity for posting and being supportive of pro-Putin information, that doesn’t really answer your ACTUAL concerns with disinformation.
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No? Both WSJ and NYT report that leaked intelligence documents show U.S. officials have an unfavorable opinion about the progress of the war in Ukraine, but you want to hang your hat on the issue of reliable sources?
Unbelievable.
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Another boat missed.
I did not question the reliability of the reporting outlets. I am pointing out that the information being shared from the leak has been, POSSIBLY, altered to give a more gloomy picture.
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The facts are that Russia has made hardly any progress since the invasion over a year ago. Or, for that matter, since the invasion 9 years ago. It doesn’t even have control over its “annexed” regions to the point where they are killing the newly adopted Russian citizens in those regions.
A military behemoth versus a country 1/4 its size, admittedly with a well trained military, but still normally no match. No match, that is, until the rubber, or rather, the treads hit the road. There is a possible deal about Egypt selling 40,000 rockets to Russia. It can’t even supply its own military without Third World arms deals. Or heavy reliance on mercenaries that filled their ranks with prisoners.
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Two words: Iranian drones.
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RE: “The facts are that Russia has made hardly any progress since the invasion over a year ago.”
That’s a fairly bizarre thing to say. After all, whether Russia has made any progress depends on Russia’s goals. That is to say, Russia’s progress as measured against its own goals may be very different from Russia’s progress as measured against the goals outsiders attribute to them.
For example, if Russia’s military goal is to “demilitarize” Ukraine, then any kill ratio advantage Russia enjoys serves that purpose. Or, if Russia’s goal was to establish a land bridge to Crimea, then mission accomplished. OR, if Russia’s geopolitical goal is to isolate the U.S. and the West so as to reduce our influence, then Russia may be achieving that.
I would point out, too, that if territory gains are the measure of Russian accomplishment on the battlefield, then the stand-out reality is that only Russia has advanced over the last five months. Ukraine has only lost territory.
I think you may be a victim of the lies our leaders have been telling us, as mentioned in the post.
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