Warmer world, fewer cyclones with no intensity increase

Heartland: Decline in numbers of cyclones with unchanged intensity

You might remember that I disagreed with NOAA’s prediction of increased major storms due to climate change.  The simplistic assumption was that warmer water meant more fuel for the storms, But a warmer world (it is only very slightly warmer) moves the convergence zone toward the poles, where the Coriolis effect causes more shear. Thus fewer hurricanes with no increase in winds.

What we do have is a great increase in insurance losses, primarily because of more valuable property built in areas of great risk. The US Gulf and Atlantic coasts account for 60% of financial losses worldwide, largely because subsidized flood insurance has enabled people to build million dollar beach houses on every inch of the coasts. Lomberg calls this the ‘expanding bullseye’ effect.

But in spite of definitive data to the contrary, the environmental lobby still insists on more and stronger hurricanes and the MSM reports every press release as gospel.

9 thoughts on “Warmer world, fewer cyclones with no intensity increase

  1. RE: “But in spite of definitive data to the contrary, the environmental lobby still insists on more and stronger hurricanes and the MSM reports every press release as gospel.”

    You have to wonder why MSM so persistently gaslights the public, especially, but not exclusively, on climate topics.

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  2. Interesting metrics. Listening to Democrats and MSM, the east coast has already been annihilated by hurricanes this year and here I have been wondering how come there has been near zero activity in the Atlantic so far.

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    1. We are in a Neutral to slightly negative ENSO phase. That favors a weak Atlantic Hurricane pattern early in the season. That does not necessarily mean the pause will last through the fall.

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      1. ” That favors a weak Atlantic Hurricane pattern early in the season. That does not necessarily mean the pause will last through the fall.”

        Very true statement. I don’t recall what year it was recently, but there was VERY limited Atlantic activity until after August 1st. The later in the season storms were pretty impressive in size and strength. Not all made landfall, but the activity shifts are interesting.

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        1. The ENSO remains slightly negative so far.

          But it is interesting that the strength of the trade winds in the Pacific are the determining factor for hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

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