Interesting shift in polls for midterms.

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What seemed like a slam dunk for Republicans has now morphed into a much tighter race. Of course all this could change by November. Other polls show Democrats want younger blood in 2024, particularly the under 30 voters. Abortion and shootings are rising to the top of issues for many. Still, Republicans have a large advantage in the Gerrymandering contests.

Published by lenrothman

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22 thoughts on “Interesting shift in polls for midterms.”

  1. Can’t read the article so I don’t know the methodology for the poll.

    Straightforward polls of preference generally don’t take inti account whether a district is deep blue, deep red, or a toss up.

    We will see in November.

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    1. One trend that seems to be rising is the dissatisfaction of old leaders. Trump, Biden, Hoyer, Pelosi, Graham…are not seeming relevant to what America needs in the future according to that part of the electorate that has to deal with it.

      Abortion and gun control are big deals for them. We may want this or that, but we won’t be here. Young voters are even chatting about complete makeover of government.

      Can’t blame them. We are leaving them a bit of a mess.

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    2. I don’t think so. The areas where the Dobbs decision is a major motivator are deep blue anyway.

      That is a general trend, areas that are blue tend to be 80-90% Democrat. red areas tend to be 60-40 divides. As a result congressional districts tend to not align with raw numbers, even without Gerrymandering, simply because Dems get packed in dense.

      Regarding the Senate, this is a fluke year, very few at risk Dem Senators are up this year, 2024 they are on a lot more trouble.

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      1. I think the purple and swing states are at risk for the GOP. Moderate Republican women and large Democrat turnouts motivated by the more extreme abortion laws that are either in effect or are actively pursued.

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        1. Yes, Democrats in NY and OR and CA are very motivated by abortion, but those states are already more pro abortion than Roe was.

          But in the suburbs, the price of gasoline is a bigger motivator.

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          1. “But in the suburbs”…

            You may be surprised by a silent majority in Red RUN states that will make known how they feel about rights being taken away from women.

            I could be wrong, but I am not a prognosticator like you.

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  3. Len, Haven’t we learned not to trust polls. Yes, good news for Dems, but still I will wait until the polls close and ALL of the legal votes are counted before jumping for joy. Or crying in my beer.

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      1. Yeah, Biden inflation that has dramatically risen his entire term will suddenly deflate in 3 months. Good luck with that.

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        1. Does Biden hold SOME responsibility for the economy? Sure EVERY President does, whether good or bad. But I find it almost humorous that people like you will blame a Democrat President when things go bad, but find ways to blame anyone else but a Republican President.

          And inflation goes up and down all of the time. Let me ask you this: How much did it cost you to put gas in your car (if done in the last three days)?

          Once again you start your history when Biden took office. Inflation was on the rise long before the last election and while, yes it has risen during the first 18 months of his term, SOME of the blame can be put squarely on the backs of the obstructionist GOP (along with rubber backed Manchin, an apparent DINO) for not working WITH the administration to provide fixes. I know you won’t remember that when Trump took office he was gifted a rising economy. But he had little to do with it continuing to rise. And it was during his administration that things started downward.

          Pesky little facts that I know you will deny. It’s what you do.

          The mustard shortage in France is caused by the pretzel logic of the right wing posters on this board.

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          2. I see you doing exactly what you claim others of, again , making excuses and then throw insults. It’s a common Adam theme I’m sure you don’t know you do.

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          4. Trump didn’t cause COVID, but it tanked his reelection chances.

            The guy in the White House gets credit and blame that isn’t always fair. What goes around…

            But that said, Biden did cause some of our woes, and the real harm is yet to come.

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          5. “Trump didn’t cause COVID”..

            Never said he did. What he should take responsibility for (A word not in his dictionary) was his reaction to it. He spent more time downplaying it instead of addressing it.

            And I did say that Biden owns some responsibility. but obstructionists in the GOP and Manchin, the ultimate DINO, have stopped ANY and EVERY attempt to solve issues. If the obstructionists had a better plan to negotiate a compromise to, then it would mean something. But their “we can tank the country just so we can win back power (and then do ZIP)” is not conducive to improving anything. They hold as much responsibility, if not more than Biden.

            And if Manchin were a Republican and he did to a Republican President what he is doing to Biden, he would be tossed from the party on his ear.

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          7. Your opinion. Manchin’s blocks have been to protect HIMSELF and his wealth. He should switch parties now and just avoid the Xmas rush.

            And he still would have been tossed from the GOP if the roles were reversed.

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