The writer, to my mind, makes a number of mistakes, but we can cull a few useful observations:
- “The likely result [of continuing to arm Ukraine] will be a prolonged and bloody stalemate reminiscent of the Western Front of 1915.”
In other words, stalemate is the most Ukraine can hope to achieve.
- “The Russians’ capture of Severodonetsk wasn’t a breakthrough; it had even less strategic significance than Mariupol.”
In other words, Russia achieved its military objective in capturing Severodonetsk. The writer should have noted that almost immediately afterwards, Russia also captured nearby Lysychansk, thereby securing the entire Republic of Luhansk.
- “…this new phase [of the Russian operation] depends on taking advantage of Russia’s massive advantage in indirect artillery, rocket and missile systems.”
In other words, Russia continues to enjoy a decisive battlefield advantage.
Let’s assume the writer is correct that the next phase of the war will become a stalemate. That strikes me as a horrendous prospect.