Putin may be losing the information war, but Zelensky’s NATO concession suggests Ukraine may be losing on the battlefield. The West must not fool itself into thinking otherwise.

Source: The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

The writer carefully corrects the narrative that Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is bogged down or stalled. I say carefully because he stops short of calling Russia’s invasion a military success in the making, as a number of analysts have done. He does, however, warn against the misinterpretation of events: “On the actual battlefield, the Russian offensive has undoubtedly slowed over the past week. But what is being described as a ‘stalled’ takeover may be the result of the Russians taking time to reorganize their forces and improve their logistics.”

10 thoughts on “Putin may be losing the information war, but Zelensky’s NATO concession suggests Ukraine may be losing on the battlefield. The West must not fool itself into thinking otherwise.

  1. This guy is bending over backwards to spin away the fact that Russia’s military has shown itself to be the actual “paper tiger” on the prowl. The simple fact is that the invasion has stalled. The different issues that might have contributed to its stalling do not change the fact that it has stalled. Bad logistics, bad planning, bad strategy, bad morale, bad assumptions. It does not matter. The walk in the park that Putin expected has not happened.

    The NATO thing can be interpreted in more than one way. Some analysts take Putin settling for the purely symbolic “victory” of no FORMAL NATO membership as a sign that he knows that he has lost and is now trying to save face. Zelensky is keeping open separate security agreements with other countries which would keep them out of NATO in the same way that Sweden is not a NATO country.

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    1. RE: “The walk in the park that Putin expected has not happened.”

      How do you know what Putin expected?

      In fact, what makes you think Russia’s military has shown itself to be a paper tiger?

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      1. Well, if he expected this then he is an even bigger fool than he seems.

        There are various bits of evidence about the easy bloodless campaign that was expected.
        1. The thin attacks on multiple fronts would only have been done based on the belief that Ukraine would fold immediately.

        1. Launching the invasion without logistical support for a campaign lasting more than a few days.
        2. Bringing parade uniforms instead of extra ammo and rations.

        3. Running out of fuel.

        4. Lack of mortuary and medical services for their fallen.

        5. Senior intelligence officials close to Putin arrested.

        A “paper tiger” is one that looks formidable UNTIL it demonstrates what it can do. Russia’s military is now seen to be incompetent, corrupt, poorly lead, and unmotivated. According to U.S. estimates they have already suffered more deaths in three weeks – about 7,000 – than we did in twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan. With the wounded added to the count casualties are well north of the 10% figure which is the point at which morale and unit cohesion fall apart.

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        1. RE: “There are various bits of evidence about the easy bloodless campaign that was expected.”

          Your five “bits of evidence” are not consistent with the fact Russia spent a year staging its army for the assault. Nor are they consistent with Russian military doctrine for siege warfare, which is clearly evident in its assault.

          So, I think you make the very mistake the writer of the source article warns against: misinterpreting events in a way that confirms one’s own biases.

          If Russia is a paper tiger, tell us the battles it has lost to date. What territory that it controlled has it been forced to give back?

          What I see from the daily reports is the steady advance of Russian forces, the encirclement of Ukranian forces in the east, and successful precision missile attacks on Ukranian military infrastructure in the west.

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          1. RE: “The truth is out there.”

            Out of your reach, apparently. You say things you can’t possibly know and you make claims you can’t back up.

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