The source takes issue with Ukrainian reports of Russian losses.
Truth is the First Casualty
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This is an actual case of the fog of war. Ukrainians claim one number; Russians report another. An example currently is the debate if one or two Russian generals have been killed. One has been independently verified, the other is still in question.
I find it interesting that you don’t talk about what the Russians are reporting about their own losses. But then again, they are telling their own people that nothing is really happening in Ukraine.
I would suspect the true number lies somewhere between.
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RE: “I find it interesting that you don’t talk about what the Russians are reporting about their own losses.”
I can’t talk about something I don’t know. The article focuses on the Ukrainian reported Russian losses and is of interest because our media repeats the Ukranian reports without questioning them. Yesterday, a user in this forum also repeated the Ukranian numbers as if they were reliable.
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The Ukrainian numbers can be checked and verified by journalists who do not have to fear being locked up in the Gulag for so doing. The same cannot be said of Russian numbers. That difference alone is enough to put higher credence on what the Ukrainian authorities report.
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We know that the Ukrainian numbers are unrealistic. That’s the point of the post.
Do you happen to know what the Russian numbers are?
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“Do you happen to know what the Russian numbers are?”
I do not. Have they provided any?
SOMETHING has caused the Russian advances towards Odessa, Kyiv, in the center of the country, and Kharkiv in the northeast to sputter to stop. Independent analysis reported by NYT estimates approximately 1,000 Russian vehicles destroyed so there have to be a great number of Russian casualties. Is it as many as Ukraine claims? Who knows? Meanwhile, in Russia, a journalist can go to jail if he refers to this as a “war” instead of a “special military operation.”
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You know the Ukrainian numbers are unrealistic? Because Vox Day dragged up some stats from 80 years ago when tactics, weapons, communications were primitive compared to today?
That is not proof of anything more than the author likes to write. He has no hard numbers. So he makes them up from some kind of historical extrapolation. What is next, comparison to Waterloo?
Useful idiots are succumbing under Putin’s “charm”.
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OK, then, here’s a second analysis using different, more recent data, that comes to the same conclusion:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/ukraine-jumps-the-shark/
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Without casting aspersions, I believe your assessment is about right. We did the same in Vietnam and Korea thinking high body count means we are winning so fluff the numbers to assuage the hoi polloi.
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“Without casting aspersions,”…
Since when is agreement considered ca sting aspersions?😇
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I’m not familiar with how Vox Popoli is organized. Is this part of a series of reports?
how do I find that thread if it is?
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The site is just an outlet for its owner’s commentary, which is often idiosyncratic. You can go the home page, here, to scroll through recent posts:
https://voxday.net/
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Thanks
Here is a Gem I found there that illustrates why I have so little regard tor the experts the MSM relies upon.
“Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former leader of the Royal Navy and now Chief of the Defence Staff, added: ‘I think we’ve seen a Russian invasion that is not going well. ‘I think we’re also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine… Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. The operation is considered at least a month behind schedule.’”
11 days in and a month behind.
Expert indeed.
If he can’t count why would I believe anything else?
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This statement may not be as foolish as you seem to think it is. It depends on what was expected. If it was expected that Putin would have full control of Ukraine by now but now it will be a month before that is achieved, then the invasion would be a month behind schedule. After 11 days.
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Proof of my comment on the other thread
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“Proof of my comment on the other thread”
I suppose you mean that I have been easily fooled by this expert?
Let’s identify his statements.
Call me fooled because I believe that each of those is a true statement. I believe the source has proved his competence and expertise by rising to lead British forces.
As for them being a month behind schedule, I do not read that with the literal ears that you do. This invasion is way behind plan. A month behind may be a misstatement; it may be hyperbole; or it may be literally correct. Whatever it is, it does not negate the truth of those six statements.
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The expectation was that Kyiv would fall in about two days.
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Who’s expectation? I see no evidence that the plan was other than to encircle and isolate the city.
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Then you haven’t been paying attention to credible sources. I have seen it in several places that, according to intelligence, Putin expected this to be a swift operation. That it has been bogged down by numerous issues, some self-inflicted, some Ukrainians defending their homeland against invaders, is causing him great embarrassment.
And Europe (and others) are beginning to notice how semi-inept this army is.
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You have evidence of Putin’s plans? Or are you guessing…again?
I find it fascinating that many on the right, including Vox Day, a self-described Christian nationalist (like Putin?) and others on this and other forums, are supporting Putin either through trashing Zelensky or excusing Russian tactics.
Ukrainians do not want to be part of Russia. Even many Russians living in Ukraine don’t want that. You suggest they just bite the bullet and learn to love Putin. He has been targeting civilians almost from day one. The Ukraine military is well trained and seasoned after fighting Russians for 8 years. They are not hiding in houses with missile launchers in schools.
Pure and simple, Putin screwed up. Big time.
You say no need to fight a guerrilla war, but just lay siege? Sure, but to ever control the country they need to find and eliminate fighters. Assassinations, terror bombings, street fighting would continue otherwise. Slaughtering civilians there would have the same results as here. That is, more resolve and continued insurgencies. Probably more than in our country because their volunteers and militias actually love their country. They haven’t tried to kidnap governors or storm Congress over perceived disrespect.
Putin told us he wants an empire. That’s what this is about. He was pretty clear in his rants. His excuse that Lenin messed up a century ago is as real as wanting to avoid an attack by NATO. That is, pure propaganda and disinformation as practiced by the ex-KGB communist turned thief who has stolen billions from his own countrymen.
Personally, I will support our friends, not our enemies. And make no mistake, Russia is our enemy. They “lived” in our State Department for most of a year under the last administration. They continually hack our companies. They interfered in our elections. They are dividing us politically.
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I doubt there are any intelligence sources that have access to Putin’s expectations.
I have seen commentary claiming that a swift fall of Kyiv was the objective, but the commentators were only guessing. I have seen other commentary claiming that surrounding cities is an established Russian tactic.
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RE: “Putin told us he wants an empire.”
When did he tell us that? Can you quote him? I have twice posted a video featuring John Mearshimer, a political scientist and international relations scholar at the University of Chicago, who makes the point that there is no record of Putin ever expressing the desire to restore either the Russian empire or the Soviet Union; so, I’d be very interested in the evidence for your claim.
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Well, from the horses mouth, Putin’s own writing, 7/20/21, at a Russian website. His dwelling on the history and glory of past Russian empires, the Soviets and how Ukraine is not a state.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181#sel=87:1:Ljl,88:53:m3l
“ Citizens of Russia … It is our strength and our readiness to fight that are the bedrock of independence and sovereignty and provide the necessary foundation for building a reliable future for your home, your family, and your Motherland.” V. Putin, 2/24/22
Donbas was never the reason. Just the excuse.
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RE: “Well, from the horses mouth, Putin’s own writing, 7/20/21, at a Russian website.”
I see nothing in Putin’s essay to support your claim that “Putin told us he wants an empire.” You should read it, all the way down to these final words:
“And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be ‘anti-Ukraine’. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.”
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After 11 days, they might very well be a month behind. This war was planned 8 years ago.
So instead of taking control in a few days, it might very well be a month or more.
That is what a month behind after 11 days looks like.
If that statement disqualified the British assessment of the invasion, then I am not sure you read it right.
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The only way Admiral Radakin could know that Russia’s war plan is a month behind schedule is if he has copies of the planning documents. Since he obviously does not have copies, the admiral is just talking trash.
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Just like this forum, I suppose?
How do you know he didn’t have access to war plans?
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If he did, that would be news. Also, he would not have temporized his statement: “The operation is considered at least a month behind schedule.” Notice the passive construction, “is considered.”
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Jeez, the semantics boss. First, you make no sense. If the war is considered behind schedule, it could very well be behind schedule.
Bottom line, if all you have is a twisted reading of the admiral’s statement, you have little. IMO
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Bottom line, if all you have is a guess about the validity of the admiral’s statement, then you got nothing.
At least Vox Day provided an analysis based on historical data. You can look up the figures yourself and show where he is wrong. But just guessing that he might be wrong based on some arbitrary consideration doesn’t really accomplish anything.
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I’m sure his figures for 1940’s battles are probably accurate.
So what, as you often say.
(This reminds me of those folks who extrapolated voting data to prove Trump won statistically.)
Not the same war, weapons, soldiers or command.
Again, the efforts to support Putin and denigrate the Ukrainians is precisely what he is trying to accomplish. With apparent successes among right wingers.
“Red feathers flock together” seems sadly true, but I have to admit I never thought I would see it come light so blatantly.
Did you read Putin’s article from 7/2021? You should so you at least get an idea where he is coming from. Killing Ukrainians, men, women and children, is but a small speed bump to him to rationalize and realize a vision based on some historical construct starting in the 800’s.
Personally, I will throw my support to the US, Europe and other democratic nations to repel a brutal, murdering dictator who will destroy a country to gain pride. Look what he did to Chechnya. This is the monster you admire.
IMO.
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RE: “This is the monster you admire.”
Don’t be ridiculous. And yes, I read Putin’s essay that you linked. You should read it yourself, especially the last sentence: ” And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.”
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A robber holds a gun to your head and says “your money or your life”.
It’s up to you to decide.
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Notice his words.
“RE: “This is the monster you admire.”
Don’t be ridiculous.”
He NEVER says he doesn’t admire him. Dr. Semantics proves his doctoral bona fides.
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