One Shot if You Have Been Infected

Source: Marginal Revolution.

Economist Alex Tabarrok has been promoting the hypothesis that the two-dose Covid vaccines we already have may be as effective as one-dose vaccines in recipients who have previously been infected with the virus. A change in policy based on such a finding automatically and immediately would almost double the vaccine inventory available for injection.

15 thoughts on “One Shot if You Have Been Infected

  1. “would almost double the vaccine inventory available for injection.“

    Can’t fault your math (pencil/paper?), but I’ll trust the medical experts.

    The second shot is instrumental to the activation of the T-cell component of the immune system response which is a key defense against virus mutation variants.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. RE: “I’ll trust the medical experts.”

      In that case you might read the paper Taborrok references. I believe the abstract addresses the issues you raise:

      “The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raises concerns about their resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited from previous infection, or from vaccination. Here we examined whether sera and monoclonal antibodies from convalescent donors, prior to and following a single immunization with the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines, neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 strain and a variant, B.1.351 from South Africa. Pre-vaccination sera weakly neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B.1.351. Immunization with either vaccine generated anamnestic B and CD4+ T cell responses and a 1000-fold increase in neutralizing antibody titers against both strains and SARS-CoV-1. Neutralization was likely due to anti-RBD and anti-S2 antibodies. Our study highlights the importance of vaccination of both uninfected and of previously infected subjects, as the elicited immune response will neutralize distinct viral strains.”

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  2. Double?

    That small subset of previously infected vaccine recipients might not make that much difference. Plus, there is mounting evidence that previous infection may not provide as good protection as previously thought.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. RE: “That small subset of previously infected vaccine recipients might not make that much difference.”

    I wouldn’t assume that the subset is “small.” Tabarrok estimates that 25 million to 100 million Americans have already been infected by Covid.

    RE: “there is mounting evidence that previous infection may not provide as good protection as previously thought.”

    The question is whether previous infection is as good as a vaccine first dose. Tabarrok has been sharing papers that suggest it is.

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    1. “Tabarrok has been sharing papers that suggest it is.”

      Again, it is inconclusive at this point, so I would still take both doses (unless I get the J&J single-dose shot when the time comes) if I had been infected.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. “Tabarrok estimates that 25 million to 100 million Americans have already been infected by Covid.”

      Also, if people are not getting tested for anti-bodies to determine if they have been previously infected (while remaining asymptomatic or not), we can’t really be sure how close his estimate is. Not to mention that if you were infected over 6 months ago, you have lost that potential immunity. Studies have shown that immunity from the infection itself does not last.

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      1. RE: ” we can’t really be sure how close his estimate is.”

        You can read the links he provides to substantiate his estimate. Otherwise you might be rejecting good information out of mere prejudice.

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        1. I also find it interesting that you used to question the numbers earlier on and posited that they were LOWER than those reported.

          A mea culpa from you for that should be forthcoming. But I really don’t anticipate one.

          His estimates seem to be all over the place with no true scientific hypothesis noted. I was not impressed. 25-100 million is a pretty big spread. And while it may be accurate, a smaller spread would make more sense and show that he actually LOOKED at the TRUE possibilities.

          Also, I would rather he got some backing from an infectious disease expert. Economists should sick to economics and not dally in disease tracking. -IMO. Larry Kudlow thought he knew more that the professionals in that field. Now he has his own show on Fox Business. Not MEDICINE, BUSINESS.

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  4. I have heard this. I have also heard that previously infected persons will react to the first injection getting the symptoms of a mild infection, but that unless you have had a positive antibody test, you should assume you have not been infected… get both doses.

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  5. It makes sense, but what makes more sense is for those who have recovered to wait until after everyone else has been vaccinated and then get the single dose J&J Vaccine.

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      1. I’m a bit put off (not that you care) but this is what I posted earlier:

        …”so I would still take both doses (unless I get the J&J single-dose shot when the time comes) if I had been infected.”

        I thought that was reasonable.

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