The Great Barrington Declaration

Source: The Great Barrington Declaration.

“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.”

Some background is available here.

I support the declaration.

20 thoughts on “The Great Barrington Declaration

  1. Natural “herd immunity” all gussied up. If an effective vaccine cannot be developed we will have no choice but to et nature take its course and kill off all of those who cannot survive the virus. The death toll will be staggering but the human race will survive.

    But, as long as there is reasonable hope of such a vaccine we should try to protect everyone until it is available. And that includes restricting the most dangerous settings such as indoor gatherings, crowded night spots, etc. which, by the way, is hardly a “lockdown.” We have not actually tried a “lockdown.”

    Liked by 1 person

    1. RE: “But, as long as there is reasonable hope of such a vaccine we should try to protect everyone until it is available.”

      Should we try to protect people who are not at risk?

      Like

      1. The problem with people at lesser risk is that they can very easily give it to those who are vulnerable. For example, school children may survive an infection with minor illness but the teachers, bus drivers, parents and grandparents they are in close contact with may not.

        Another thing to consider is that we do not yet have ANY real knowledge of the long term damage this virus is causing even to those who seemingly are not badly affected in the short term.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. RE: ” For example, school children may survive an infection with minor illness but the teachers, bus drivers, parents and grandparents they are in close contact with may not.”

        In that case, it would be best for the schoolchildren to develop immunity by exposure so their teachers will not be at risk from them.

        Like

        1. “In that case, it would be best for the schoolchildren to develop immunity by exposure so their teachers will not be at risk from them.”

          Good grief. We do not even know that immunity is possible. And if it is, how long it lasts. And we do know that people who are not sick can easily give it to others. Your argument is an example of Trump-style magical thinking. Mere words to wish away a problem.

          Liked by 1 person

        2. RE: “We do not even know that immunity is possible.”

          Then we don’t know that it isn’t, either, if that’s your concern. So mox nix.

          I provided a link to background on the declaration in case you’re interested in exploring the science.

          Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be especially contagious, and the average survival rate for all age groups is greater than 99%. These two factors suggest to me that we needn’t be overly fearful of known unknowns.

          Like

          1. “Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be especially contagious”

            From what I have read about it, that is not true. It is at least twice as contagious as flu and flu spreads rapidly every season. We do know that it started from zero and spread to over 7.5 million people pretty quickly. And that is just in this country. Plus, it is hard to know now just how contagious Covid would be if everyone behaved like Trump. It seemed to spread around his contacts pretty quickly. Even Stephen Miller got it and you would think he would be immune to anything save a stake through his heart.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. RE: “Plus, it is hard to know now just how contagious Covid would be if everyone behaved like Trump.”

            It doesn’t matter. We have hard data on the risks by age group. We can use that data to form public health policy to our advantage, which is the point of the Barrington Declaration.

            Like

          3. It does actually matter just how contagious the virus is. Yes, it does. Believe it or not.

            As always, Trumper arguments are based on “alternative facts.” Like this one – “Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be especially contagious”

            Today you offered evidence that kids are dangerous virus spreaders even when they do not get sick themselves. But, you just ignore the evidence that YOU provided because Trump wants schools to open no matter what. Hopeless.

            Liked by 1 person

          4. RE: “It does actually matter just how contagious the virus is.”

            Why? It wouldn’t matter at all how contagious a virus is if it doesn’t hurt anyone.

            RE: “Today you offered evidence that kids are dangerous virus spreaders even when they do not get sick themselves.”

            Nope. Dangerous is your word. I’d say Covid-19 is not terribly dangerous to either schoolchilren or their teachers under 65 years of age.

            Like

  2. It looks like a fumble on the goal line to me.

    We are so close to a vaccine, it would be a stupid time to let down our guard right now. We will have 50 million doses on hand in November, enough for a first of 2 doses for everyone over 70. We have another 100 million coming in December, enough for their 2nd dose plus a first dose for everyone over 60 at high risk for other reasons. Another 100 million in January to complete their protection and start working down the age order.

    At that point, death from COVID-19 would be pretty much eliminated.

    So, instead of letting down our guard, push the FDA and its Phase 3 testing aside and start vaccinating the vulnerable population as fast as possible, and the need for precautions will be over by February. We already know all we need to know to start saving tens of thousands of lives.

    Like

    1. RE: “It looks like a fumble on the goal line to me.”

      Wouldn’t the vaccine roll out as you describe it be consistent with the Focused Protection approach in the declaration?

      Like

      1. RE: “It would be if it came BEFORE dropping our guard on everything else.”

        Got it. I don’t see the declaration as particularly radical. The basic concepts look the same to me as the concepts in the pandemic response plan we’ve been following all along, updated and published by HHS in 2017.

        If the declaration seems radical, it is probably because public perceptions are out of sync with the science, which has improved since the pandemic began.

        Like

    2. Fumble on the goal line?

      The goal is to distribute a safe and effective vaccine that people can trust. You are assuming both that it is safe and that it is effective. Neither is actually known in the absence of testing.

      Is there a field of science where you do not know more than the professionals? Why do you attribute malignant motives to almost everybody except those who obviously have them? Why do you think you know more than the people who have spent a lifetime studying such matters of public health. Is it so hard to understand that there are risks BOTH ways. Giving 50 million people a vaccine that does not work is a formula for yet another tragedy because their behavior and the behavior of those around them would become deadly.

      I, for one, am gratified that the FDA has stood up to the clown in the White House and resisted his corrupt intent of politicizing the process which should be based on science and best practices and not Trump’s political whims, tweets or agenda.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. RE: “Is there a field of science where you do not know more than the professionals? Why do you attribute malignant motives to almost everybody except those who obviously have them? Why do you think you know more than the people who have spent a lifetime studying such matters of public health.”

        Your comment is out of line, Mr. Muphy, a clear and objective violation of the Forum rule against personal attacks. Please control your posting behavior, or face moderation.

        Like

        1. Huh? Personal attack? They are questions based on observed facts. They are legitimate questions for anyone who is constantly dismissing expert opinions on highly technical matters especially when that someone impugns the motives of those whose findings he does not like. He claims to be an expert who knows more than the FDA. What are his credentials?

          Your childish threats of “moderation” speak for themselves. But go ahead. Knock yourself out if that is all you have got.

          Liked by 1 person

      2. What could possibly come up in these vaccines, which have already been injected into more than 30,000 volunteers with no serious complications that is as dangerous as the virus, which is still killing almost 10,000 people a month for 3 more months than necessary.

        The only real risk is that the vaccine may not be as effective as we would like, but again, so what? We already bought it. The cost to administer it is negligible compared to the cost of hospitalizing tens of thousands of people over that time period, and if it isn’t fully effective in preventing infection but reduces the severity, that’s still better than nothing.

        Like

        1. Again, you simply ignore the risks on the other side of the equation. The people who actually have to make those decisions are not at liberty to be so cavalier with the lives and safety of so many people. Further, you are not privy to anything that has been observed in the trials so far. You are still assuming that the vaccines being tested are safe and only hoping they might be effective.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Of course we know there have been no adverse effects in the trials.

            One of the trials was temporarily halted because one patient had an adverse event(which turned out to be coincidental) and it was front page news.

            The vaccines are safe, and at least partially effective, but useless sitting in freezers while people die waiting for them.

            Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s