A prediction of a Biden “bump” that is stronger than Trump’s and Reagan’s.
“Given Mr. Biden’s ambitious plans to use increased tax revenue to fund more spending on green energy, health care and infrastructure, it’s conceivable he could spur the U.S. economy enough to push annual stock returns to 15%. Returns averaged 17.5% a year under President Bill Clinton and 16.3% a year under President Barack Obama, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at the research firm CFRA. Compare this with 14.6% a year under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. George W. Bush, who was plagued by the crash of 2008 a few months before he left office, clocked in with a negative 4.5% a year. From the inauguration of Donald Trump through Aug. 7, stock returns have averaged about 13.7% a year.“
Despite the very expensive tax cut with borrowed money, the GDP never exceeded Obama’s except for one quarter. This was long before COVID. The hiring stayed on the same trajectory as 2010 through 2016, which was good.
Bottom line, in my opinion, is that Trump’s economy was no great shakes even without the pandemic. In fact manufacturing went down in the last quarter of 2019.