Since the beginning of the pandemic, the IHME forecast for the course of the coronavirus pandemic was among the most optimistic. It was frequently referred to by Trump and its findings took center stage on the CDC COVID-19 forecast web page. Until recently, IHME forecast a first wave (thru end of July) death toll of about 72,000. Now its authors have changed it radically and that 72,000 deaths through July became 135,000.
Why the big change? Because their first model assumed a level of lockdown and social distancing which we now know we are not achieving and it will only get worse as Republicans try to rush a return to “normalcy” in time for the election.
Why is Joe Stalin smiling? As soon as the model changed, it was removed from the CDC forecast web site. Here is the CDC forecast web page on April 24. (CU is Columbia University)
And here is the most recent . . .
See the difference? I wonder who issued the order to remove the current IHME forecast. It was either Trump himself or someone afraid of losing their position if they didn’t. Our government has been poisoned.