NRO: Don’t Just Demand More Testing, Study What More Testing Requires

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/dont-just-demand-more-testing-study-what-more-testing-requires/

Some facts and figures on Covid-19 testing capacity, requirements and production potential.

I find it hard to believe that we need 5 million Covid-19 tests per day, nationally, to safely reopen the country, but I have no way to dispute the estimate.

15 thoughts on “NRO: Don’t Just Demand More Testing, Study What More Testing Requires

  1. Applying a little (VERY) basic math here:

    5 million tests per day across all 50 states comes out to 100K per state average. Some states will require more, some less, (some a LOT more. CA, TX, NY, I’m talking to you) based on population and results from previous testing. An average populated state (Indiana, for example) would need to be in the 100k per day test range. Louisiana is the median state with a population of approx. 4.7 million residents would need less. Pennsylvania, ranked 5th in population estimates woudl require more.

    If it is 5 million tests being recommended by experts, then that could be the goal. It may not be achievable, but it is something to strive for. When you reach for the heavens and come up short, you are still among the stars.

    Whether 5 million is necessary remains to be seen. But to not move toward that number could be a recipe for trouble.

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    1. RE: “If it is 5 million tests being recommended by experts, then that could be the goal.”

      Actually, 5 million tests per day is just the starting goal. The Harvard study that recommends it also wants 20 million tests per day by sometime in August.

      I’m all for aspirational objectives, but these numbers strike me as unrealistic. Plus, I question the motives underlying the Harvard study. The authors come across to me as wanting to use science to achieve total control of the population. I don’t trust them.

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      1. “The authors come across to me as wanting to use science to achieve total control of the population.”

        I think your fear is irrational and unfounded. In a time of crisis a lot of unfriendly information comes forth. But to state that scientists are trying to control the population is ludicrous -IMHO.

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        1. RE: “I think your fear is irrational and unfounded.”

          Could be. Have you read the Harvard Study?

          Click to access roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

          Nowhere do the authors explain why 5 million, then 20 million tests per day are necessary. But the necessity of that level of testing is the basis of their elaborate scheme to set up new governmental control over supply chains, medical practice and social behavior.

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  2. It’s not a matter of simply dividing a total by the number of states. Wyoming will never need its share. CA will need more.

    But just as importantly, they won’t all need them at the same time as they will not all meet the infection rate criteria at the same time.

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    1. I never said the math was perfect. I DID say some will need more and some will need less. I also parenthetically said some will need a lot more. Its called averaging.

      The point being we should strive to ramp up testing, and add serology testing (which I believe you and I agree on), as much as possible and not just say it is IMpossible.

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      1. The point I’m getting at is that whatever number we can deliver, the problem is worse if 14 states all try to start phase 1 at the same time, especially when none of them meet the criteria.

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        1. I agree that not all states should start at the same time. The issue is you have states like GA and TX that are opening back up without meeting Phase I criteria as put out by the WH.

          And by doing that, it is likely they will see rising rates of infection and death. Which will set them back and could possibly end up causing them to have to test just to identify NEW infections. And without solid contact tracing and follow on actions, we could see a fairly large spike in those states.

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          1. I just used those 2 as an example. And they are ignoring the guidelines put forth by the WH.

            Where is your righteous indignation over that? Where is the divisive statement you constantly make when it involves Democrats? I believe the only Democratic governor involved is Colorado

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          2. I’m the one that pointed that none of the states meet the criteria. That was a non-partisan criticism of all of them. You’re the one who can’t see past party to right and wrong.

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          3. Your track record indicates otherwise. I just have this strange feeling that if these were all Democratically controlled states, your response would be much harsher.

            I try to see past it all of the time. But then others drag it back to the divisiveness.

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  3. “I find it hard to believe that we need 5 million Covid-19 tests per day, nationally, to safely reopen the country, but I have no way to dispute the estimate.”

    Well, the experts say there’s no way we can get there, so belief or not won’t matter.

    Liked by 1 person

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