Potentially positive update

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has been sited by the WH quite a bit.

Apparently a new influx of data shows a potential drop in the number of deaths and the number of ventilators needed.

If their modeling is as good as it appears to have been thus far, this is potentially good news. BUT an overreaction to it could turn it all back around. “Though the update of the model appears to be good news, at least for now, (IHME Director Dr. Christopher) Murray counseled caution. “If social-distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” he said.

3 thoughts on “Potentially positive update

  1. Classmates of mine have gone into the medical fields all over the US since we graduated in 1964. I just got an email from one who works with an epidemiologist from Yale and the premise is simply this: social distancing is absolutely critical. That means no cheating. No play dates with friends. The tracking algorithms the pros uses, like your report link specifies, is that unless we keep this up, mortality will skyrocket.

    A person comes home from allowed work, infects family, then a play date moves to another family and the dominoes fall one after another. It is a single “cheat” within a family group that can spark a local epidemic in a matter of days.

    What is interesting is that in your link. these predictions are being based on massive amounts of new data and should be more accurate. Still, the new projections dropped from 93,000 to 81,000, based on strict social distancing almost through the summer. Of course, the good news is the fact that fewer ICU’s, ventilators, etc. will be needed which might give us time to catch up a bit.

    Of course, if we go back to “normal”, all bets are off.

    As someone said somewhere, this is like being in a massive hurricane with no wind. Strange.

    Liked by 3 people

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