Who's REALLY winning

The New York Fed and other academic researchers find that it is US consumers and companies that are really paying the tariffs, not China as our fearful leader constantly tells us.

There is an illusion that Mr. Trump likes to put forward that we are winning the trade kerfuffle (in deference to an earlier post about correct use of the word “war”.), but the facts, AGAIN, say otherwise.

And while data showed earlier that we are winning the battle, the fact is that we are winning off our own backs.

8 thoughts on “Who's REALLY winning

  1. RE: “And while data showed earlier that we are winning the battle, the fact is that we are winning off our own backs.”

    Not necessarily. It depends on how you define winning. The authors of the study claim they have disproved long-standing economic theory “that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices” (from the abstract). And perhaps they have. On the other hand, they found the effects were not homogenous across all sectors of the economy.

    So, if winning means that prices go down across the board, then the discovery they didn’t (as trade theory predicted) might seem like loosing.

    If, however, winning means stopping the export of U.S. dollars to China, then NYT simply failed to notice or mention it. Another example of biased, unreliable reporting.

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    1. Stop reading everything with your jaundiced eye and read WHO wrote the report the story was based on. WE, the PEOPLE, are the ones paying the tariffs and it is our pockets that are being picked by this trade kerfuffle. It is my customers that are being effected by increased prices for material I sell. And all of the price increases are related directly to the tariffs.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. RE: “read WHO wrote the report the story was based on.”

      I did. In fact, I looked up their working paper on the NBER web site, which you might have guessed, since I quoted from the abstract. It is from the perspective of having researched the NYT article that I observe it is an example of biased, unreliable reporting.

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  2. The trade deficit is still much higher than when Trump took office. A dip in the last couple of months won’t make an appreciable difference in the total when the 2019 figures finally come out.

    So we are not “winning” anything. If we get back down to the $500 billion in 2016 it would be pretty incredible. It was $552 billion in 2017 and $621 billion in 2018. And to even attempt to achieve that we have had to raise tariffs on the backs of American consumers for several years. and dump billions into the pockets of Big Agra to keep their lobby money flowing.

    The deficit itself means little. The main goals were supposed to be intellectual property protection and other policies that China was, and still is, using to extort advantages on the world market.

    Bottom line, if getting closer to where we were with exports and imports when we started this trade war is considered a win, then there are bridges for sale in NY that might be a better deal.

    Sticking with TPP would have been a much, much better and more effective way to put pressure on China.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. RE: “The trade deficit is still much higher than when Trump took office.”

      No, it isn’t. I posted a story about this yesterday here the Forum, headlined, “US Trade Deficit Crashes To Smallest Since Trump Elected.”

      https://tidewaterforum.blog/2020/01/07/zerohedge-us-trade-deficit-crashes-to-smallest-since-trump-elected/

      RE: “The deficit itself means little.”

      Sorry, but that’s just ignorant. As I pointed out yesterday, trade deficits are a measure of the volume of U.S. dollars leaving our economy.

      I think your compulsion to discredit President Trump is leading you astray.

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      1. For one month, but the annual is still higher. Much higher.

        Now is it coming down steadily? We don’t know.

        Ignorant that a deficit is one way or the other? In a global economy there are buyers and sellers. We are buyers of consumer goods. Americans save a bundle by getting products from the most efficient suppliers. Dollars leave the economy in return for goods that we cannot make competitively. So we have more cash to build homes, save for retirement, getting medical treatments, invest in businesses, etc..

        I don’t give a crap about Trump. He is wrong whether he is brilliant or ignorant. He looks at trade as a zero sum game because that is all he knows. If someone wins someone else has to lose in his world.

        We export tech services and import tee shirts. You think it is better the other way around?

        You are trying to analyze my argument like a psychologist. That is precisely what you blame others for doing about you and Trump, BTW.

        Liked by 1 person

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