Source: A Son of the American Revolution.
The military analysts I follow think Russia may be planning a big offensive in early to mid November. The source article covers some of the reasons for thinking so. Not mentioned, but widely acknowledged is that Ukraine’s offensive that made so much news last month has dead ended.
Tidewater News and Opinion Forum 
https://tinyurl.com/bdh835ee
If paywalled, it is a story documenting the fact that Russia is now operating “press gangs” all over the country that are sweeping people off the streets and into the military. If they plan an offensive any time soon against Ukraine’s tough forces with people like these, it will be a blood bath.
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WAPO creates the impression that Russian conscripts are being gathered at random and will be applied arbitrarily, but it doesn’t substantiate either assumption. WAPO also doesn’t mention that Ukraine’s army consists largely of conscripts.
WAPO simply doesn’t provide enough information on which to base any military predictions. It just tells a sob story.
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It is not a sob story. It is evidence for a couple of significant points. Russian military management is incompetent. And, Russian men are not flocking to the colors and have to be forcibly rounded up.
Since your supposed November offensive will have to carried out by apparently and understandably unwilling soldiers, these press gangs do provide evidence to think that such an offensive will not go well.
Sure Ukraine immediately went to a draft. It had not choice. The difference with their draft and the Russian draft is that the people were behind it in Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, has lost far more men to neighboring countries in a few weeks than we did to Canada over many years during the Vietnam draft. Again, not a good sign for those hoping for Russian victory.
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RE: “Russian military management is incompetent.”
How so, just because there’s a draft?
WAPO tells us nothing about how the draft is being managed. For example, are specific skill sets being sought? If so, what’s the breakdown between combat, logistics and staff positions to be filled? How many of the draftees have prior military experience? How many and of what type will be sent to Ukraine; how many will substitute within Russia for existing, fully trained military who transfer to Ukraine?
Without knowing details such as these it is impossible to assess the mobilization or what it might tell us about Russian military competence.
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Putin himself has already admitted that the mobilization was very badly managed. The need for these press gangs and the random people they are sweeping up confirms that he was right about that.
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/29/putin-admits-mistakes-mobilization
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RE: “Putin himself has already admitted that the mobilization was very badly managed.”
Did he? According to your own source Putin acknowledged “mistakes,” not bad management.
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If Putin publicly acknowledged mistakes you can bet your bottom dollar it was a catastrophe. Anyway, competent management does not leave the boss having to eat humble pie.
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RE: “If Putin publicly acknowledged mistakes you can bet your bottom dollar it was a catastrophe.”
No thanks.
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Here is what happens if your incompetence embarrasses dictator Putin . . .
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-head-of-his-military-campaign-found-dead-under-mysterious-circumstances/ar-AA133Aj8?cvid=dcd9007209564a51917ac8f092e0a6f7&ocid=winp2sv1plustaskbarhover
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RE: “press gangs and the random people they are sweeping up”
What makes you think random people are being swept up?
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“What makes you think random people are being swept up?”
Reports from the family members of people who have been grabbed.
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Right. Reports from people who have no insight into Russia’s mobilization plan or procedures, only sob stories to tell.
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Russia is losing. Putin is pushing for a ceasefire.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/10/14/why-russia-is-pushing-a-return-to-negotiations
He doesn’t want peace negotiations. He knows he is in no position to bargain. He wants to buy time to regroup and train a new army and, hopefully, be ready for an attack in February or March of next year. He won’t get it.
The war has not “come to a halt.” Ukraine has called for operational silence in Kherson. If things were at a halt, Putin wouldn’t be looking for a ceasefire.
Putin has lost his tough guy creds. Small Russian satellite countries are talking back to him to his face. He was used to making other world leaders stand and wait for him. This isn’t happening anymore. https://metro.co.uk/2022/07/20/putin-squirms-when-turkish-president-leaves-him-waiting-for-50-seconds-17034721/
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Your first source posits that Russia wants a ceasefire so that it can train and supply a “new” army for a major offensive early next year. I suppose that’s a possibility, except that Russia doesn’t need a ceasefire to train or supply for an offensive. Most (80%) of its pre-mobilization standing army is available for deployment to Ukraine.
Your second source may well show that “Putin has lost his tough guy creds,” but it is also possible that Erdogan was legitimately delayed.
Ultimately, the idea that Russia is losing sounds like magical thinking to me. Russia has been bombing Ukraine with 100-200 missiles per day for a solid week. Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces have been unable to break through any Russian defenses for almost a month.
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“Ultimately, the idea that Russia is losing sounds like magical thinking to me. . .”
You may be fooled, but I will bet that Ukraine isn’t. Any talk of a cease-fire by Russia is for one purpose only – to buy time, train conscripts, and maybe get more munitions from North Korea and Iran (LOL!).
Yes, Russia has been deliberately attacking dozens of civilian targets with heavy hits on a daily basis. How many long range missiles do you think they have left? Here is a hint – it’s not many.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-reveals-how-many-missiles-putin-has-left-defeat-inevitable-1752036
Yeah, I know that is Ukraine’s analysis. But, Western experts are reaching the same conclusion.
And what good did they do militarily? Almost nothing. In fact, by hardening attitudes in Ukraine they have been counter-productive.
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The missile/drone estimate I heard was enough to continue the bombing campaign at the current rate for at least six months. If the bombs keep hitting infrastructure targets as they have been, the military effect will be debilitating for Ukraine.
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Do the math. Your estimate is complete nonsense. You said the current rate was 100-200 per day. Let’s take 150. That is about 1,000 per week. Six months equals 26,000 long range capable cruise missiles and drones. Let’s take Ukraine’s estimate of what they have left and multiply it by TEN. That is 6,000.
Realistically, Russia cannot harm Ukraine militarily or win the war with these terror weapons. They are in very short supply, they are relatively easy to shoot down, and the damage they do is frequently less than what they cost.
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RE: “That is about 1,000 per week. Six months equals 26,000 long range capable cruise missiles and drones.”
That’s right. I see no reason to doubt that Russia can use that number over the next six months.
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“I see no reason to doubt that Russia can use that number over the next six months.”
I can think of one reason – they do not exist.
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Pitiful. You don’t know whether they exist of not.
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“Pitiful. You don’t know whether they exist of not.”
Without ANY evidence or common sense you are sure they DO exist. I have stated that these 26,000 long range flying bombs do NOT exist based on the EVIDENCE provided by our DOD and by Ukraine. And, of course, a little bit of common sense.
One of us is beyond pitiful. In my opinion it is the clueless American cheerleading for our enemy – the murderous fascist thug whose lust for a return to the USSR started this calamity.
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Most (80%) of its pre-mobilization standing army is available for deployment to Ukraine.
Uh, Nope. Not even close.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3143381/russian-efforts-to-raise-numbers-of-troops-unlikely-to-succeed-us-official-says/
Putin would not be taking the politically dangerous step of drafting 300,000 civilians if your statement was anywhere near the truth.
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You should read your own source carefully. Russia doesn’t need to increase the size of its whole military in order to increase the size of the forces it deploys to Ukraine.
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Your 80% figure was total nonsense. Not man enough to admit it I see.
The authorized size of the Russian military is 1,000,000 men. It is way below that level. Currently around 850,000. Casualties in Ukraine are at least 50,000 probably more and there at least already 300,000 deployed in Ukraine or nearby in Russia. That leaves a MAXIMUM of 500,000 live bodies still in the Russian Ground Forces. Realistically only a portion of those can be used for a variety of reasons. Thus the call for 300,000 more live bodies.
The truth is that Putin has ALREADY thrown in his best trained and best equipped groups and they have been mauled and are on the run. Now the Russians are evacuating Kershon ahead of an expected Ukrainian advance.
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Russian forces are not retreating from Kershon. Or anyhere.
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I could not follow this video because of the thick Russian accent.
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“Russia doesn’t need a ceasefire to train or supply for an offensive. Most (80%) of its pre-mobilization standing army is available for deployment to Ukraine.”
Russia obviously does need a ceasefire. If they have 80% of their pre-mobilization standing army available for deployment what are they waiting for? Why aren’t they sending them in now? Why are they conducting an unpopular draft? They’ve run out of trained soldiers and they can’t get more trained in less than 6 months.
“Your second source may well show that “Putin has lost his tough guy creds,” but it is also possible that Erdogan was legitimately delayed.”
It wasn’t just Erdogan. It was Azerbaijan, India and Kyrgyzstan. Putin is on the ropes and the whole world knows it.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-mocked-after-foreign-leaders-keep-him-waiting-sco-summit-1743923
Putin is attacking civilian targets because (a) he’s a monster and (b) he can’t win when he attacks military targets. Russian oligarchs have bled the Russian military dry. Money that should have gone to the troops has gone to buy private jets and yachts the size of cruise ships for Putin’s cronies. Military equipment has not been maintained as it should have been. Troops have not been equipped as they should have been. Training has not been done as is should have been done. Officers have been promoted based on their political connections, not on their levels of military expertise. Putin’s army is built on RT propaganda. Unfortunately for Putin, you need more than propaganda when the HIMARS begin to fall.
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RE: “Why aren’t they sending them in now?”
Why should they? The Ukrainian offensive has already dead ended.
RE: “Putin is attacking civilian targets…”
You are misinformed. Russian missiles are hitting infrastructure targets — power plants, train stations, etc.
RE: “Unfortunately for Putin, you need more than propaganda when the HIMARS begin to fall.”
At least half the HIMARS we sent have been destroyed, with no possibility of replacement for several years.
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RE: Why should they? The Ukrainian offensive has already dead ended.
The Ukrainian offensive is “dead ended” almost at the Russian border and it’s not over yet. They’ve crippled Putin’s prize bridge between Crimea and Russia and that’s on the other side of where the fight began. And, when the Russian army turned tail and ran back into the corner where they are now, that was a really bad look. Why didn’t Putin send in the 80% then?
RE: You are misinformed. Russian missiles are hitting infrastructure targets — power plants, train stations, etc.
I am not misinformed. Today a Russian drone hit an apartment building that killed a pregnant woman, her husband, and their cat. Apartment buildings are not “infrastructure.” Playgrounds are not “infrastructure.” Concert halls and churches and grocery stores are not “infrastructure.”
RE: At least half the HIMARS we sent have been destroyed, with no possibility of replacement for several years.
HIMARS can’t be shot down like ordinary missiles. They’re rockets. They come in fast and low and hit before they can be detected. Then, the shooters are gone before the enemy can retaliate. Hit and run. That’s how small armies attack large armies. “Even advanced Russian air defense systems find it hard or impossible to intercept incoming HIMARS rockets. Russia’s much-advertised S-400 or Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, which have been deployed in occupied Ukraine, have not been effective at stopping them.”
On October 4, the DoD announced it was sending more HIMARS to Ukraine with even more deadly ammunition. So don’t get your hopes up about Ukraine running out of HIMARS.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/10/05/new-types-of-ammunition-make-ukraines-himars-far-deadlier/?sh=43200f746dbc
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