“Combined with weapons taken during Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and other parts of northern Ukraine in April, these recent gains have turned Moscow into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts. Western-provided weapons, though, are usually more advanced and precise.“
And Putin was blaming the West for supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This is like disarming a mugger then shooting him with his own gun. Karma?
Tidewater News and Opinion Forum 
RE: “And Putin was blaming the West for supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This is like disarming a mugger then shooting him with his own gun.”
I wouldn’t read too much into it. The flow of weapons and ammunition from US/NATO to Ukraine has been drying up. Hence the ratio of trophies to regular supply has increased. One can see the change of ratio as either a sign of Ukrainian success or as a sign of Ukrainian desperation.
It may be significant that the quality of the trophies is superior to the quality of the regular supply. For example, NATO has been supplying Soviet-era Russian tanks to Ukraine, whereas Russia has been equipping itself with modern Russian tanks, some of which are now in Ukrainian hands. Having better weapons will certainly be advantageous to Ukraine.
According to the analysts I follow, the big question right now is, How does Russia intend to use its newly mobilized forces in Ukraine? Russia gained the territory it currently holds despite a 3-to-1 disadvantage in manpower. The mobilization could reverse the disadvantage, but will Russia deploy its new forces to do so?
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“ How does Russia intend to use its newly mobilized forces in Ukraine?”
Probably the same way it’s always used them, as cannon fodder.
I can’t put my finger on the article right now, but the leader of the Wagner forces was recruiting from prisons. He is now accepting murderers and rapists, which supposedly was the line before. He tells the prisoners who sign up that if they decide the war is not for them when shipped to the front, they will be executed. Now that’s a morale booster.
Putin has been reported to be sending tactical nukes nearer the border. If he uses them, he will lose the few supporters he had left.
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RE: “Probably the same way it’s always used them, as cannon fodder.”
That’s ridiculous. Russian personnel losses have been consistently much lower than Ukrainian personnel losses throughout the conflict. If there has been any cannon fodder in Ukraine, it has been Ukrainian.
RE: “Putin has been reported to be sending tactical nukes nearer the border. If he uses them, he will lose the few supporters he had left.”
He might gain supporters, for all anyone knows with certainty about his public approval ratings.
I recommend caution in assuming that Russia is somehow “on the ropes” in Ukraine.
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Ukrainians have taken heavy losses in the last
month or so. 200/day according to Ukraine sources.
But the gains have been substantial.
Russian losses have been estimate at 60,000 dead since the invasion. And they are losing ground. Along with thousands of heavy weapons like tanks, personnel carriers, howitzers, etc.
Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence as a people and as a sovereign nation. Russians are not and their military is relying on prisoners, mercenaries and now a forced conscription from distant vassal states. Bullets are not the only part of an effective military.
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RE: “Ukrainians have taken heavy losses in the last
month or so. 200/day according to Ukraine sources.”
The number I have posted — from Douglas MacGreggor via The Guardian — is closer to 3,000 casualties a day (dead and wounded/not returning to battle) for Ukraine.
RE: “Russian losses have been estimate at 60,000 dead since the invasion.”
That would be about 300 dead per day on average. Assuming a fairly standard casualty ratio of 1-to-6 (dead to wounded) that equals about 2,000 total casualties per day for Russia.
RE: “And they are losing ground. Along with thousands of heavy weapons like tanks, personnel carriers, howitzers, etc.”
As I said, don’t read too much into this. Tactical retreats are common in mobile warfare. Also, according to your own article, the trophies are not “thousands of heavy weapons,” but scores.
RE: “Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence as a people and as a sovereign nation.”
So what? Thoughts don’t stop bombs.
RE: “Russians are not and their military is relying on prisoners, mercenaries and now a forced conscription from distant vassal states.”
You are wrong about this. Russia’s mobilization consisted overwhelmingly of experienced former military personnel.
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“The number I have posted — from Douglas MacGreggor via The Guardian ”
The issue is you believe MacGregor, who has been referred to as “full of poo”, or words to that effect numerous times by numerous sources. You are single sourcing your information from a Putin butt kisser. Good for you.
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“ Oryx, an open-source site tracking military equipment losses around the world, has gathered photographic evidence of 5,887 Russian vehicles and pieces of military equipment which has been destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured since February 24.”
https://www.newsweek.com/counting-russia-losses-200-days-ukraine-war-1741482
That is a lot more than “scores”. About 1000 tanks are included in that.
If you are extrapolating , 3,000 x 210 days equals 630,000 casualties for Ukraine. I believe that might be hard since their army was less than half of that.
Exact numbers for the campaign are hard to nail down, but common sense dictates here.
As far as experienced personnel, who did the Russians send in earlier if not experienced.
As far as tactical retreats, Russian were abandoning and fleeing towns they have occupied for months or even years. Lyman was a logistical hub for the Russians. That’s not a tactical loss, but a strategic one.
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“Russian personnel losses have been consistently much lower than Ukrainian personnel losses throughout the conflict. ”
Uh, that may be what Russia is telling you but then they keep their actual casualties a secret. What we do know for sure is that Russia needs to conscript a lot more people to stay in the fight. We also know that more men have left Russia than have joined the military.
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