War is not just about the battling armies. It is about the countries at war. The experts who have predicted an inevitable Russian victory have not taken account of very real differences between Ukraine and Russia.
“By focusing on military hardware, experts often miss the “software” of war: the quality of leadership, morale and motivation, decision-making and governance and the engagement of society.”
Tidewater News and Opinion Forum 
Larry Johnson provides a sober assessment of Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive:
QUOTE
1. Russia and its allies captured the major industrial port city of Mariupol from frontline Ukrainian troops and are still in full control of that city.
2. Russia and its allies expelled the Ukrainian Army from the Luhansk Republic and are in full control there.
3. Russia and its allies are continuing to retake cities and villages in the Donetsk Republic and pushing Ukraine to the west.
4. Russia carried out a tactical retreat from the Kharkiv Oblast and moved those forces to the Donetsk region. Yes, they surrendered territory. They retreated.
5. During the current offensive, according to Ukrainian sources, Ukrainian troops are suffering at least 5 times the casualties of Russia and its allies.
6. Russia’s Air Force is intact and has suffered minimal losses while Ukraine’s Air Force has been erased.
7. Russia is producing its own missiles, rockets and artillery shells and is not dependent on another country to continue its fire missions while Ukraine is totally dependent, now, on western supplies.
8. In its current offensive in the Kharkiv oblast Ukraine has failed to carry out an operation in depth–its attacks have been confined to the frontlines while Russia’s artillery and missiles continue to rain down on exposed Ukrainian troops.
ENDQUOTE
https://sonar21.com/putin-and-his-army-on-the-ropes-again/
No one knows what the future will bring, but in the present there is little reason to think that Ukraine is “winning.”
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This is untrue:
” Russia is producing its own missiles, rockets and artillery shells and is not dependent on another country ”
North Korea and Iran are providing weapons to Russia because they CAN’T produce their own.
” Russia’s Air Force is intact and has suffered minimal losses while Ukraine’s Air Force has been erased.”
If Russia’s air force were truly “intact” there would be no Ukrainian advances possible. Tactical error in not using the air forces or incompetent pilots? And Ukraine’s air force was not much to begin with. That is why they requested fighters very early on. –
…”artillery and missiles continue to rain down on exposed Ukrainian troops.”
They aren’t hitting Ukrainian troops, they are hitting infrastructure and civilians. Not to mention the discovery of mass graves following the Russian retreats showing torture techniques. I believe the word is “war crime”. But we shall see.
The Johnson assessment is looking less accurate with every sentence.
“No one knows what the future will bring, but in the present there is little reason to think that Ukraine is “winning.””
Well the Russians certainly aren’t. Having to empty prisons and being in fighters from allied nations because their army is so incompetent. Ukraine is advancing and Russia is in retreat in the northeast portion of the country. Russian supply lines are going to end up disrupted once the counter-offensive clamps down on the northeastern part of Ukraine.
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One might wonder, had today’s news services existed in 1944 Germany, how the Battle of the Bulge might have been reported.
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If you think this Ukraine offensive is some sort of last gasp effort comparable to the German offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 then you have a very poor understanding of the situation then and the situation now. IMHO.
You are trying to spin this news of Ukrainian success as somehow a propaganda creation by Western media. Once again anguished cries of “fake news” reverberate through the “conservative” echo chamber. LOL!
If it is “fake news” then many Russian commentators have been fooled since the criticism of their country’s failures in Ukraine is coming out – even on Putin TV.
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Unlike you, I recognize that my wishes are not fact.
I do not know whether this counter offensive will succeed or not, but know I don’t know.
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Unlike you, I put a great deal of weight on evidence. The EVIDENCE so far is that Russia’s aggression has been a disaster for their country. As much as you people WISH it was a fact that Putin is a “genius” for getting a whole country for the price of some insignificant sanctions, so far the EVIDENCE is to the contrary.
The counter-offensive HAS succeeded. It has humiliated the enemy and reinforced the will to support Ukraine in the West.
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RE: “I put a great deal of weight on evidence.”
That would be hard to prove. In the Karkiv offensive, Ukraine reports that it lost five personnel for every Russian loss, but you say the operation was a success.
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Of course the Ukrainian losses might be more. The Russians fled before they suffered heavy casualties. So artillery and mines would still take a toll.
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There are going to be casualties in war. Ukraine regained in days what it took Russia months to occupy. You win wars by making it politically impossible for your enemy to carry on. Ukraine’s offensive was a big step in that direction. A dictator who fails is going to be in danger which is probably why so many prominent Russians are being liquidated.
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it’s cute that you think you have seen the actual evidnece.
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@lenrothman
@Paul Murphy
I am continually amazed at the levels of denial propagandized people will attempt.
There is no doubt that Ukraine took territory Russian forces chose not to defend in the Kharkiv oblast, but Ukrainian personnel losses were both substantial and disproportionate to Russian losses. Since one of Russia’s stated military objectives is to demilitarize Ukraine, a rational observer would be skeptical of any claims of Ukrainian success in the operation.
I suspect that Ukraine’s military operations have been replaced with US/Nato operations such that Ukraine itself isn’t even fighting the war anymore.
The propagandized American public, however, keeps believing in Ghosts of Kiev.
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“There is no doubt that Ukraine took territory Russian forces chose not to defend in the Kharkiv oblast”
Chose not to defend? Americans not Ukrainians doing the fighting? And you accuse Len and I of being swayed by propaganda? Not too laughable!
Meanwhile Putin is emptying prisons for troops and going cap in hand to North Korea for munitions as you do when you are a Great Power. Yeah, sure.
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“It’s cute that you think you have seen the actual evidence.”
Well, I have seen plenty of evidence that Russia has been pushed back from where they were by the current Ukrainian offensive. Not just in Western media, but also Russians talking about their dismal failures on Russian TV. So, yes, I think it happened based on evidence.
What is not “cute” is jackasses crying “fake news” when reality starts to bite. Kind of pathetic, actually.
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Putin’s troubles keep on piling on. Four ex-Soviet states are now fighting each other over territorial and other disputes.
https://www.newsweek.com/conflict-former-soviet-union-states-putin-struggles-ukraine-russia-1743789
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Ukraine is “winning” nothing. It’s absurd to believe so at this point thus far.
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As I see it, nobody is “winning” the war but Russia definitely has the upper hand. If scorched earth was the desired result, Russia could overrun Ukraine with no problem. I still say let Russia have the Donbas region and the whole thing ends.
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“I still say let Russia have the Donbas region and the whole thing ends.”
One of Putin’s diplomats came to him with a proposal that was acceptable to Ukraine in February. Putin said NYET. He WANTED to invade. This indicates that it is about the POWER display, which has not been “winning” but a lot of negative movement by Russian forces. Ukraine could end up as Putin’s Viet Nam. -IMO
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