The Bucha Provocation

Source: Moon of Alabama.

Everywhere I turn today media are talking about the massacre at Bucha, a small town in the suburbs of Kyiv. Nearly every report assumes that Russian forces murdered 100 or more Ukrainian civilians before leaving town on March 30. As the source article explains, there are good reasons to doubt the narrative we are hearing.

Some of the reasons for skepticism are:

  • The allegations have yet to be investigated.
  • Russia is demanding an investigation to be performed by the U.N., a demand it likely would not make if its soldiers had committed war crimes.
  • The timeline of events (in the source article) makes the alleged Russian atrocity improbable.
  • Ukraine has produced a wealth of propaganda based on outright fabrication over the last five weeks.

I have no idea what the truth of events in Bucha may be, but it is somewhat disturbing to see so many outlets and commentators acting as if they know what happened when — prima facie — they don’t.

The U.S. should stop pouring money into a war Ukraine has already lost and we should stop imposing sanctions that only bounce back to our disadvantage.

56 thoughts on “The Bucha Provocation

    1. “The Ukraine is definitely winning the propaganda war.”

      It is not hard to win a “propaganda war” when the truth is on your side. Selling utter nonsense such as Putin is trying to do is much harder.

      For example, Russia is trying to sell the idea that their invasion has been a success and is going according to plan. Ukraine is trying to sell the idea that they have stopped the Russian advance, inflicted heavy losses, and are pushing them back.

      Which is the truth?

      Well, Russia was in Bucha for a month, and now they are not. That is one of countless data points that makes Ukraine’s version of events far more credible.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. RE: “That is one of countless data points that makes Ukraine’s version of events far more credible.”

        I think it makes Ukraine’s version of events far less credible. Russian forces were in Bucha for more than a month. What was their incentive to commit war crimes of the kind alleged?

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          1. “And on the way out, when it would surely be discovered.”
            Oh, so your theory is the Russians would not be committing atrocities because they knew they were losing and soon would be pushed out.

            Yeah, sure, that makes sense. Not.

            “Putin may be a thug, but he is not a stupid thug.”
            Putin’s level of stupidity has little to do with it. I doubt that Putin personally ordered these specific war crimes. Looks more like the work of a poorly trained, undisciplined, and terrified army frustrated by the unexpected and unrelenting horror unleashed on them.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Looks to me like the Azov Paramilitaries who came in as the Russians left murdered those ratted out by others as friendly to the Russians, and then claimed the Russians had done it.

            Russia has called for an investigation by the UN.

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          3. “It looks to me…”

            I had no idea you went to Ukraine. All this time I thought you were enamored by Putin’s news agency and world class disinformation.

            So what else did you see over there? Hitler’s grandson leading a platoon or whatever Nazi’s call their military units? Did you see the rotting bodies? Azov must have sneaked in while the Russians were playing Canasta and planted bodies early on. Can you cast some light on that please.

            Putin is so proud of what he is so good at.

            And he is good at it, no?

            Evidently.

            Liked by 2 people

          4. I was surprised to read that the Azov was there too. I thought they were being massacred in Mariopol.

            I’ll try to find the original, source, I just got back from fishing and haven’t had time to catch up yet.

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          5. “Russia has called for an investigation by the UN.”

            Well, there you go. They must be innocent. Hey, wait a minute. Ukraine called for an outside investigation first. So, they must be innocent too. Same “logic.”

            So, you suspect the Azov Paramilitaries? Based on something you pulled out of your ass or is it clueless but eager credulity about Russian claims? Never mind that Azov is heavily engaged in the battle around Mariupol which is ONLY 800km away on the other side of the country. It MUST have been them. And, of course, none of the survivors are telling the truth. Great “crisis actors!”

            Liked by 1 person

          6. Ah, yes , it was a quote from the NYT that appeared in the article above,

            “Ukrainian soldiers from the Azov battalion walked through the remnants of a Russian military convoy in the recently liberated town of Bucha on Saturday, just outside the capital after the Russians withdrew.”

            The original article is paywalled to me so I can’t see the context

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          7. It appears that both sides in this conflict are liars. I will wait for an independent investigation.

            The bodies can be identified and the victims will indicate the guilty.

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          8. “It appears that both sides in this conflict are liars.”

            Uh, no it does not appear that way at all. You just cannot admit the foolishness of buying into preposterous Russian lies out of what? Your love of European civilization and its “champions” like Putin and Trump?

            Human Rights Watch has someone on the ground and has provided an objective account of what he encountered and the stories he heard from the survivors.

            https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas#

            I know evidence does not mean much to you people, but your Putinesque claim that the most likely scenario was that the Azov Paramilitaries murdered collaborators does not stand up under the fact that the bodies lying in the streets were spotted in satellite images two weeks before the Russian retreat.

            https://www.bbc.com/news/60981238

            Liked by 2 people

        1. Uh, the data point referred to the competing stories about the progress of the invasion. Russia being forced to leave a town they captured a month ago confirms they are being pushed back.

          What was the incentive for American forces to commit war crimes at My Lai? It is not about incentives. It is very likely the work of a poorly trained, undisciplined, and terrified unit frustrated and angered by the unexpected and unrelenting violence unleashed on them in what was supposed to be a cake walk.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. RE: “Russia being forced to leave a town they captured a month ago confirms they are being pushed back.”

            There is no reason to assume Russia was “forced to leave.” All we know is that they left. We don’t know why.

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          2. “There is no reason to assume Russia was “forced to leave.”
            All we know is that they left. We don’t know why.”

            We do know why. They ran into resistance to their invasion that they did not expect and were not prepared for. Now they are pulling back. How far back remains to be seen.

            Liked by 1 person

          3. RE: “They ran into resistance to their invasion that they did not expect and were not prepared for. Now they are pulling back. How far back remains to be seen.”

            You assume too much. For example, that Russia made a tactical retreat (because they had to) instead of a strategic retreat (to redeploy forces for a new operation).

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          4. “You assume too much. ”

            I am not assuming anything. Russian forces retreated. You can talk about “tactical” retreat or “strategic” retreat all you want, but a retreat is a retreat. Either by direct confrontation or by making re-supply impossible, Ukraine has forced back the Russian advance on Kyiv. Period.

            Liked by 1 person

          5. RE: “When is a retreat not a retreat?”

            Wrong question. Not all retreats are the same. It is ignorant to pretend otherwise.

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          6. When is a retreat not a retreat?

            Several ways. One would be when you have accomplished your objective and go on to other priorities.

            Russia plainly said that taking Kiev was not an objective, that cutting it off was the goal. They did not say for how long that needed to be.

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          7. When is a retreat not a retreat?

            “One would be when you have accomplished your objective ”

            Oh, so Kyiv is now cut-off? Is there no fascist propaganda that you won’t spread?

            You do not need to be a von Clausewitz to see what has happened. Russia acted on bad assumptions and tried to accomplish too much with too little. They tried to advance in too many places with lines that were too thin and without reserves. They failed to achieve major objectives on any front. Those objectives included “regime change” no matter what they are saying now. So, now after having failed they are trying to save the situation by consolidating their efforts in fewer places and focusing on the mineral rich area they wanted to steal in the first place. To do that, they have retreated around Kyiv.

            Liked by 1 person

        2. “ Russian forces were in Bucha for more than a month.”

          You might be right. February 27 until April 1 when Ukrainian forces entered the city.

          Assuming the Russians were not welcoming the Ukrainian soldiers with flowers and cheers, they probably left on March 31.

          So that would be 32 days, 33 at most.

          So yes, more than a month. By 2 or 3 days. Perhaps less if you consider the actual occupation may have taken most of a day and leaving about the same.

          So what is your point?

          Liked by 2 people

        3. “Incentive”? What were the incentives to flatten Aleppo and Grozny?

          Terror. Ghengis Khan was known for brutally wiping out an entire village except for one person. He was sent out to warn the next town that resistance was not such a good idea.

          But, I can certainly see how a poorly disciplined and low morale military could also kill indiscriminately if things go awry. The legacy of General Zhukov is strong and soldiers are as expendable as artillery shells.

          Liked by 2 people

        4. RE: “So what is your point?”

          The point is that the only evidence of war crimes occurred after Russian forces departed.

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          1. “The point is that the only evidence of war crimes occurred after Russian forces departed.”

            SO when was the evidence to be discovered? While the Russians were there committing the atrocities they are accused of and then admitting that “Yeah, we did that.”?

            Liked by 1 person

        5. RE: “But, I can certainly see how a poorly disciplined and low morale military could also kill indiscriminately if things go awry.”

          Why should we assume the Russian military is undisciplined and has low morale? From what I can see they are decisively winning the war.

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          1. “The point is that the only evidence of war crimes occurred after Russian forces departed.”

            Evidence doesn’t “occur.” It is found. And, yes, the evidence of the war crimes was found after Russian forces departed and civilians emerged from the rubble to tell what happened and say where the bodies were buried.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. “From what I can see they are decisively winning the war.”

            If Russia is “decisively winning the war” I wonder what defeat would look like?

            You constantly affirm that you are not just another fascist stooge rooting for a fascist victory. Your only concern, you say, is that Americans not believe propaganda. And, yet there is not an iota of Russian disinformation, outright lies and laughable propaganda that you have not repeated and/or defended. What is up with that?

            Liked by 1 person

          3. RE: “civilians emerged from the rubble to tell what happened”

            The mayor of Bucha is on video (March 31) saying the Russians left and everything is fine. The war crimes allegation emerged several days later, only after Ukrainian police (SBU) entered the area. You’d think the mayor would have known about the crimes when he first spoke.

            The most likely scenario is that the SBU executed Bucha civilians for “collaborating with the enemy,” then blamed the executions on Russia. They have done that before, as in Mariupol.

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          4. RE: “And, yet there is not an iota of Russian disinformation, outright lies and laughable propaganda that
            you have not repeated and/or defended.”

            What disinformation do you think I have repeated or defended?

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          5. “The most likely scenario is that the SBU executed Bucha civilians for “collaborating with the enemy,” then blamed the executions on Russia. They have done that before, as in Mariupol.”

            The most likely scenario?

            My, those Ukrainians sure can keep secrets. Their own forces come to town and start murdering people en masse but nobody spills the beans. And that silly Zelensky begs for international observers to come to Bucha and investigate what happened. And what about that amazing Ukraine technology that adds a month of decomposition to freshly killed collaborators. My oh my, aren’t those Ukrainian “crisis actors” telling lies good at what they do!

            Liked by 1 person

          6. RE: “My, those Ukrainians sure can keep secrets.”

            Maybe not so much. Reportedly there is a video of Ukrainian officers telling soldiers to kill civilians in Bucha.

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          7. “Reportedly there is a video of Ukrainian officers telling soldiers to kill civilians in Bucha.”

            And you just asked with your face hanging out what Russian lies and propaganda you repeat. I invite you to review the last few threads where you will find MANY. Here in no particular order is a sampling of the “facts” you have shared on this forum.

            1. Russia is not retreating. They are winning decisively.
            2. The slaughter at Bucha was done by the Ukrainian police.
            3. There is a video of Ukrainian officer telling soldiers (not police?) to kill civilians in Bucha.
            4. Ukraine has produced a wealth of propaganda based on outright fabrication.
            5. Ukraine has already lost.
            6. Ukraine is not facing a larger military
            7. Russia has committed no war crimes at all.
            8. U.S. and European economic sanctions are having almost no significant effect

            Liked by 1 person

          8. Your mischaracterizations are ridiculous. I challenge you to quote me accurately, but I know you cannot support your criticism of my comments by doing so.

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          9. I have not mis-characterized your comments in any way.
            You are a LIAR.

            Have you forgotten what you have said? It is right here. Read it again.

            Here are YOUR words by bullet point . . .

            1. “From what I can see they are decisively winning the war.”
            2. “The most likely scenario is that the SBU executed Bucha civilians …”
            3. “Reportedly there is a video of Ukrainian officers telling soldiers to kill civilians in Bucha.”
            4. “Ukraine has produced a wealth of propaganda based on outright fabrication over the last five weeks.”
            5. “The U.S. should stop pouring money into a war Ukraine has already lost…”
            6. “Actually, the Russian army in Ukraine is the smaller force. . .”
            7. “The point is that the only evidence of war crimes occurred after Russian forces departed.”
            8. “Also, the U.S. and European economic sanctions are having almost no significant effect and may actually work to Russia’s advantage.”

            Your postings and comments have confirmed one obvious fact – Putin stooges are stooges.

            Liked by 2 people

          10. “Now tell us, where are any of my quoted statements false?”

            What a laughable dummy you are!

            You accused me of mischaracterizing what you had said. I have provided your words that demonstrate your accusation was a LIE.

            Now you want to debate whether your statements are true? Again, irrelevant. My original comment was in response to your challenge to show how you spread Russian propaganda. Each of these eight statements is from the Russian party line. And, BTW, each of your statements is essentially false.

            Liked by 1 person

    2. Putin has a very strong ally, stronger than anything we have in the West. His media. Sort of like FOX for The last president, but on steroids.

      We can read dozens of media from many countries. Most have some presence in Ukraine, even in conflict areas. Some have died.

      Unless there is a massive conspiracy with thousands in on a blood oath, I would suggest Russia is lying.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. What do you think Russia is lying about? They asked the U.N. to investigate the incident at Bucha. What do you make of that?

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        1. It will be interesting what happens in the U.N. Security Council meeting later today. If they truly want an investigation, they will not veto any actions concerning that.

          Let’s see how this plays out.

          Liked by 1 person

      2. RE: “Promise to open humanitarian corridors and then bomb them has been ongoing since very early on.”

        Where has this happened?

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        1. Around Marioupol and other towns that the Russians attacked. Three different times it happened. I would provide links, but you will just refer to them as anti-Putin propaganda. It’s what you do EVERYT SINGLE FUCKIING TIME you are presented with information that counters the Russian propaganda you seem to be wallowing in.

          Liked by 1 person

    3. RE: “The Ukraine is definitely winning the propaganda war.”

      That may be true, but what does it mean? If Ukraine wins the propaganda war but loses the military war, what will it have won?

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        1. Well said. I don’t think Ukraine will be the victors. If they aren’t, their propaganda will harm their memory.

          My concern, though, is for Americans who are forming their opinions of the conflict based on dubious assertions.

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  1. I thought it strange that Bucha supposedly suffered a mass execution by Russian troops when there is no clear motive to do such a thing and suffer the backlash or consequences of such an action. It would be just as easy to line the street with war casualties and create propaganda such as this. Mass media making unfounded claims or outright lies based on unproven allegations is nothing new. It’s how the left spreads it’s propaganda.

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    1. …”there is no clear motive to do such a thing and suffer the backlash or consequences of such an action”

      Trying to cover up their incompetence in that they have been pushed back by Ukrainian fighters and then attempting to spread fear to others.

      And the don’t give a rat’s ass about consequences or repercussions. The Russians did in Grozny and Aleppo. Do you really think they care?

      Liked by 1 person

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