Brett Stephens posits any interesting possibility.
“Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).
Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.”
So it isn’t about demilitarizing, de-Nazifying, saving ethnic Russians or any of the other reasons given (and defended by some here); it is about the vast resources under the ground of Eastern Ukraine and the ability to ship the reserves to market
Makes a lot more sense then some of what has been posited previously.
There are some other tidbits in JVL’s daily Triad column, but this seemed interesting and not anything we have heard before.
14 thoughts on “Another plausible reason for Putin’s “special military operation”.”
JVL writes, “Putin is, right now, losing. And has been losing since Day 2 of this war.”
I believe JVL is misinformed. Mariopul has, for all intents and purposes, already fallen. What’s left of the Azov fighters there appear to be trapped in the grounds of the city’s big steel factory and while skirmishes persist in various neighborhoods, Russian soldiers move somewhat freely through the city to deliver food and evacuate residents who wish to leave.
The bulk or Ukraine’s army is now trapped on one side of the Donbas contact line, surrounded on three sides in a classic pincer (North, East and South).
Also, the U.S. and European economic sanctions are having almost no significant effect and may actually work to Russia’s advantage. Russia has demanded that Europe pay for Russian natural gas in rubles or else Russia will cut off the supply. Europe must decide by tomorrow.
Videos of Ukrainian war crimes and torture proliferate throughout Russian media such that Putin’s public support is only growing.
Our push for regime change isn’t going to work, and we will suffer for our arrogance.
“Videos of Ukrainian war crimes and torture proliferate throughout Russian media such that Putin’s public support is only growing.”
That is because anyone who would voice opposition has either 1) left the country, 2) locked themselves away for fear of reprisal, or 3) has been “disappeared”. – IMO. The in-country propaganda machine is cranked up to 11.
Of course in YOUR pro-Putin view the REAL news is the news that comes from Kremlin controlled media, while ignoring the remainder of the free world’s reporting.
“Our push for regime change isn’t going to work”…
There is no push for regime change from us or anyone else. Biden’s comment in frustration was undisciplined, and the probable unspoken view of 98% of the free world.
If you reacted to even ONE of TFG’s undisciplined comments the way you have to this one, I would not say what I am about to say. HYPOCRITE. You spent 4 years defending TFG’s words and actions while his staff had to work overtime just to walk them back.
And I am so not surprised that you IGNORED the MAIN point of the post; A VERY plausible reason for Putin’s invasion of his PEACEFUL, SOVEREIGN neighbor. Ukraine was NO threat to Russia in any way, shape, or form. Yet the “special military operation” was sold as a demilitarization of a country that had no inclination of invading Russia or even threatening them.
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The peaceful neighbor that’s been shelling the ethnic Russians in the Donbas since 2014?
You mean the Kremlin backed separatists that were terrorizing the Donbas since it was INVADED and ANNEXED by Russia in 2014?
You seem to be saying that a country cannot defend itself from enemies, internal or external. And Ukraine was ZERO threat to Russian territory, ACTUAL, RECOGNIZED Russian territory.
They don’t have the same kind of Constitution in Ukraine, but we have an oath that military members, including the Commander-in-Chief, swears to defend against all enemies, foreign and domestic. By your account, Ukraine is not allowed to do the same.
Shelling the Russian military and their mercenaries is what you mean, I am sure. The same gentle folks that shot down a commercial airliner with Russian rockets.
“Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was travelling over conflict-hit Ukraine on 17 July 2014 when it disappeared from radar.
A total of 283 passengers, including 80 children, and 15 crew members were on board.
The plane crashed after being hit by a Russian-made Buk missile over eastern Ukraine, a 15-month investigation by the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) found in October 2015.
In September 2016, an international team of criminal investigators said evidence showed the Buk missile had been brought in from Russian territory and was fired from a field controlled by Russian-backed separatists.”
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That peaceful neighbor was dealing with invaders, foreign mercenaries, and armed traitors INSIDE of its own country. THAT is not a threat to Russia no matter how furiously you spin it.
“Ethnic Russians” who prefer to live in Russia have nothing stopping their moving to Russia. Of course, they cannot take what is under the ground in Ukraine with them. Which is the real motive behind Putin’s criminal aggression according to Stephens. He makes a very good point, don’t you think?
“What’s left of the Azov fighters”…
You got some sort in inside info that the Azov Brigade is the only one in Mariupol? Or are you just gesticulating to the bare chested autocrat you admire so much?
“Russia will cut off the supply.”..
Then who they gonna sell to? India? China? Putin can demand rubles all he wants. The unity of the West is a lot stronger than your Russian strongman, autocratic idol.
I believe JVL is a lot better informed than you. – IMO. And he’s got the Conservative chops to back it up. He, among others, have not swallowed the orange Kool-Aid the way have.
RE: “You got some sort in inside info that the Azov Brigade is the only one in Mariupol?”
You can watch some of the videos here:
Or, read yesterday’s SITREP here:
RE: “Then who they gonna sell to? India? China?”
RE: “The unity of the West is a lot stronger than your Russian strongman, autocratic idol.”
Unity is irrelevant. Russia literally doesn’t need the West to be prosperous.
Germany will be buying all the gas and oil Russia will sell by next fall.
Bygones move quickly in that part of the world.
“You can watch some of the videos here:
Right. More Putin supporting Propaganda.
And Russia actually DOES need the west to be prosperous. That is the way things are in a global economy. And even if those other countries buy from Russia, are they going to pay in rubles? Nope. They will pay in the internationally recognized trade currency. USD.
Unity is NOT irrelevant. Part of Putin’s planning was that the west so so fractured, he could get away with, literally, murder.
Your so far down the Kremlin rabbit hole you have lot sight of reality. I almost feel sorry for you.
RE: “Right. More Putin supporting Propaganda.”
I don’t care who Patrick Lancaster supports. He has a camera. He goes into the war zone. He talks to people who answer his questions in their own words. He’s the only American journalist (and U.S. Navy veteran) I know who is doing this work.
RE: “And Russia actually DOES need the west to be prosperous. That is the way things are in a global economy. And even if those other countries buy from Russia, are they going to pay in rubles? Nope. They will pay in the internationally recognized trade currency. USD.”
India and China already have foreign exchange agreements with Russia such that they don’t need USDs to buy or sell anything with them. Because of the U.S. sanctions, the “global economy” for us may well consist only of North America, Europe, Japan and Australia.
“He’s the only American journalist (and U.S. Navy veteran) I know who is doing this work.”
That’s because you seem to know very little except that which exists in your silo. Get out of the silo and see what ALL media is reporting, who they are talking to, and what they are finding out.
As far as his veteran status, I’ve met several over the course of my career and retirement that are, shall we say, a little loopy in their beliefs. It gives him little to no purchase in the world of journalism.
“So it isn’t about demilitarizing, de-Nazifying, saving ethnic Russians”
What makes you think those are mutually exclusive with gaining some mineral supplies?
Do you think we went into Kuwait to restore democracy?
“Do you think we went into Kuwait to restore democracy?”
We wen to protect the GLOBAL oil market. That was the reason why Bush I was able to from the multinational coalition that saved them from Iraq.
SOME mineral supplies? Seriously? Did you look at what kind of supplies were noted?