Yesterday I posted a brief note critiquing Laura Ingraham’s Covid Survival Rate chart. Turns out there’s a better explanation of Ingraham’s chart numbers than the one I came up with.

Based on a little number crunching I assumed Ingraham’s survival rate to be the complement of the case mortality rate, which I calculated from CDC data. I needn’t have relied on the CMR calculation, however. Elsewhere on the CDC web site, the government provides estimates of Covid-19’s infection fatality rate for the same age groups as Ingraham’s chart. Ingraham’s survival rate numbers are indeed complements of the IFR for each age group (i.e., an IFR of 5% would imply a survival rate of 95%).

Other parts of my post remain valid. In particular, had Ingraham’s chart clearly defined the term survival rate I could have avoided error and confusion by searching for the correct CDC data set.

Moreover, Ingraham’s Covid Survival Rate chart is reasonable, accurate and truthful as a means of visualizing the CDC’s infection fatality rate estimates. It is certainly useful to know that the probability of surviving a Covid-19 infection is almost 99% (average) across all age groups.

“It is certainly useful to know that the probability of surviving a Covid-19 infection is almost 99% (average) across all age groups.”

Sure, just about as “useful” as knowing that the average fortune of Jeff Bezos and myself is $80 billion. In my age group, if I catch this highly contagious disease by letting down my guard I am certain to get very ill, very likely to enjoy an extended stay in the hospital with damage that will ruin what is left of my health and have at least a 5% chance of ending up dead. I will NOT be basing my decisions on the average.

The families of the over 204,000 of those who have died thank you for your due diligence.

The long haulers, mostly younger people, are grateful they aren’t dying, but they are still quite sick for longer than the average flu.

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RE” “The families of the over 204,000 of those who have died thank you for your due diligence.”

I say, “You’re welcome!” to the 0.06375%

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“It is certainly useful to know that the probability of surviving a Covid-19 infection is almost 99% (average) across all age groups.”

Sure, just about as “useful” as knowing that the average fortune of Jeff Bezos and myself is $80 billion. In my age group, if I catch this highly contagious disease by letting down my guard I am certain to get very ill, very likely to enjoy an extended stay in the hospital with damage that will ruin what is left of my health and have at least a 5% chance of ending up dead. I will NOT be basing my decisions on the average.

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