Why Is COVID-19 Trending Down in Virginia?

Source: Bacon’s Rebellion.

The writer invites readers to weigh in with answers. I think the explanation has two parts:

  • The case spikes we’re seeing elsewhere are largely an illusion created by increased testing and shifting data reporting requirements.
  • Pandemics peter out naturally.

Commenters at BR offer some other theories.

5 thoughts on “Why Is COVID-19 Trending Down in Virginia?

  1. Epidemics follow a pattern, starting with rapid spread, then as herd immunity develops, a plateau, followed by a long, slow decline.

    The thing is, we’re not all in the same herd. There are regional herds, and sub-herds within them.

    Greater New York had its cycle and is in the long tail. But consider Arizona, It first had a spike in the Amerindian populations, who just won’t social distance. Now it’s having a second spike among the large number of retirees there. No doubt there will be another spike there among the knuckleheads who just have to work out in a gym instead of their garage. But each sub-herd will have its cycle.

    So, I think that’s what we’re going to see, flair-ups in regions and sub-herds, followed by slow spread among those who have tried to protect themselves by following the guidance.

    For us, the question is, can we avoid infection long enough for a vaccine to give us instant, universal herd immunity.

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  2. It is not the increased testing as much as the increase in positives among the tested. Toss in hospitalization rates climbing rapidly, and you have a clear picture of a pandemic out of control in our country.

    We have about 1/4 of the world’s cases and 30% of its deaths.

    We had 20 cases by March 1 with assurances that it was no big deal.

    In four months we have confirmed about 131,000 deaths. Probably much higher.

    If this crisis is blown out of proportion it is hard to see how.

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    1. Regarding the US death rate, keep in mind that we have a very large nursing home population, where most of the deaths occur. In most of the rest of the world, people with those conditions are already dead.

      Comparing the US to other countries requires a lot of effort to avoid apples to oranges,

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      1. People in nursing homes are vulnerable. I saw that initially, they are now saying that 40% of our deaths are in assisted group homes. That means 60% are not. I don’t know if that is still the case.

        Interestingly enough, is the reason the deaths in nursing homes are so high is the vulnerability of the patients from age or the fact that they are packed in with minimal care? Or both?

        Of course, that is a scandal unto itself. So many of our assisted living are understaffed with poorly paid attendants.

        Yet are the other countries in the industrial world that much worse than ours? I don’t imagine they are. But it was true that the Swedish experiment did not count the nursing home deaths at first.

        True comparisons are tough. But I am guessing that the states that just couldn’t wait to reopen are a problem today.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. What is unknown is the number of persons who die in nursing homes having come from a hospital and their homes before that. We know it happens. It’s been acknowledged.

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