No wonder the deficit and debt are through the proverbial roof

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-driving-the-economybefore-trump-and-now-11572449817

A slight bump of 4/10ths percent in GDP over Obama years is not enough to pay for tax cuts.

2.6% versus 2.2% is not the 3, 4, even 5% touted by the regime to sell the tax cuts.

The rest of the numbers such as business investments, exports and home building are dismal. I think the “easy to win” trade wars we are in around the globe might be the issue. But lagging numbers in those three areas can have pretty long term effects even if we get some minor deals from China and Europe.

12 thoughts on “No wonder the deficit and debt are through the proverbial roof

    1. And a GOOD one it is too.

      Most pay-for-view pages simply load the entire page and then throw an “overlay” so you can’t read it.

      Sometimes just using the “text reader” will load the article (sans photos and ads[a real bonus]) in text mode and voila!
      At the worst, like with the VP, you can bring up the page editor, delete the offending node, “select all”, “copy” and “paste” into, say, a new email, and VOILA! Again, without ads and annoying videos and trash.

      Liked by 1 person

  1. Keep in mind that tax receipts are at record highs

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/federal-tax-revenues-hit-record-highs-are-trumps-tax-cuts-paying-for-themselves/

    so the problem is that spending, driven primarily by entitlements, is growing faster than revenue, not that we aren’t taxed enough.

    The growth in Medicaid alone due to expansion accounts for the growth of the deficit.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/245348/total-medicaid-expenditure-since-1966/

    Note that the tax reduction increased revenues, just not enough to cover the automatic growth in spending.

    Like

    1. Let’s not forget DOD spending that is now budgeted at $750 Billion.

      Maybe the revenue increased slightly, 2.9%, but that barely covers inflation. And we know we owe a lot of money. And if government spending is a lot of the “booming” economy, what are we gaining?

      I wonder what part of consumer spending is healthcare? Health insurance for a family of four is over $20K per year, not including 3% Medicare payroll and out of pocket. It is around 1/3rd of median family income.

      And our roads are getting worse. Infrastructure week…LOL.

      We are leaning on a rotten stick.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. The problem with healthcare is that we have not allowed the market to control costs as it does with everything else we buy.

        People do not shop carefully when they are spending other people’s money.

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    2. “Entitlements” being those things for which I have paid my entire working life (and continue to do so), i.e., SocSec and Medicare, as opposed to a $13B berthing barge that’s supposed to be yet another “more than the rest of the world put together” aircraft carrier?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I would support taking Social Security and Medicare A & B off budget as self supporting, then we would see the effect of unsupported entitlements like Medicaid, and Medicare Part D more clearly.

        Yes, you paid for SS and Medicare A & B but Medicaid and Part D are being pushed off on your grandchildren.

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    3. There’s lies, damn lies and statistics.

      The relevant measure is what the tax receipts would have been without the greedy Trump tax cuts benefiting mainly the billionaire class based on FALSE promises of miraculous growth. And, the data you link to was published about 18 months ago. Since then, receipts have flattened out. And, the small increases that you are touting are not being driven by income tax – the main subject of the discussion of tax policy – but by payroll taxes.

      The Medicaid-caused-the-deficit analysis could be applied to many areas of government decisions. Military waste comes to mind. Or tax policy. If tax rates had remained what they were in 1966 we could be enjoying monumental government surpluses.

      But anyway, thanks for sharing important data supporting the idea that the way we finance healthcare is broken. Or do you propose withholding it from those people that Medicaid covers? “Conservatives” always ask how are we going to pay for Medicare-for-all? You have identified a major pool of existing spending that would offset a big part of the Medicare-for-all spending.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Of course payroll taxes are up, more people are employed and wages are finally rising. So, flat payroill taxes go up with them.

        But while corporate taxes are pretty much flat, personal income taxes are also up. Not enough to keep up with runaway entitlements, but they are up.

        Your assertion that they would have been up more had the tax cuts not been passed is pure speculation. You don’t know if income would be up and thus can’t know if the taxes collected would be up or down. That’s the problem with static analysis. People’s behavior changes in response to tax rates. If tax rates were as they were in 1966, you assume that the economy would have grown at the same rate and that capital investment would have stayed in the US. That’s a big assumption, we could as easily have fallen to third world status at those rates and be importing everything manufactured.

        Capital crosses borders rather easily, as New York, New Jersey and California are learning as we speak. Wealthy people don’t get that way by sitting around and taking a beating.

        The number of hours you must work to put food on your table or to own a reliable car have plummeted over our lifetimes. The only things that cost more, in hours of labor, are government and government controlled education and health care.

        If the cost of health care had followed the same trajectory as groceries, it wouldn’t matter how we paid for it, we could afford to do it many ways. And I spent a lifetime in health care and I can assure you that providing health care is a LOT less complex that providing fresh groceries year round.

        Health care is a crisis ONLY because government won’t get out of the way.

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  2. Unfortunately so. I subscribe to Apple News which has a lot of media under one roof for $9.99/mo. after a decent trial period, including WSJ.

    I guess media has to generate income and ads are not enough. Particularly when it come to the major outlets with lots or journalists around the world getting the news first hand. I try to get a variety of sources and sometimes I will pay a bit.

    So many “alternative sites” just cut and paste MSM news with their own spin.

    The gist of the article was that two things are driving our economy now: government and consumer spending. All other sources are down below previous administration numbers including business investment, exports, imports, housing, etc.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I subscribe as well, money well spent, and the left to right variety make it easy to compare “spins” and verify facts.

      Maybe we can start a “Go Fund Me” for Donald?

      Like

      1. Don is funding this site, bless his heart.

        There may be little agreement among the protagonists, but I have been to sites on the web that have both illuminating and surprising. Even a few “WTF’s”.

        That alone is worth the price of admission in my view.

        Liked by 2 people

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