It sounds like a tails they win, heads we lose deal so far.
If some of the phase one deals ever come to fruition, it is just a matter of getting us closer to where we were when this trade war started. Minus all the losses and subsidies, of course.
Trade war updates from the Federal Reserve
Published
Tidewater News and Opinion Forum 
You should take the trouble to read the original study on which the Vox article is based (link in the article). The detailed math is far, far beyond my ability to comprehend, but it is abundantly clear that the data set the authors are working with is of such limited scope (about 1 year total) that the study itself has zero predictive value.
That is, the study discovers short-term effects of the trade war, but it cannot conclude (and doesn’t) that these immediate effects represent long-term trends.
Apart from this, neither Vox nor the study it writes about addresses trade issues that obviously exist outside the question of protecting domestic industries. For example, a major reason for increasing tariffs on Chinese goods is to prevent U.S. dollars from exiting our economy to China’s. The macro-economic effects of such outflows of currency, in my view, obliterate any comparative advantage that “free trade” theoretically provides.
I wouldn’t take it for a given that the Federal Reserve, or Vox, is playing fair here.
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The Vox piece is just the tip of the iceberg. I’ve been following this misguided cluster f*#k of a foreign trade policy(?) and the negative ramifications are just beginning to show themselves.
Trump will find people to blame, but it will be hard for him to lie his way out of the shit storm that will follow his squandering of the gift of the Obama Recovery/Economy…tick, tick, tick…
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