Who is Winning the War in Ukraine?

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Source: The American Conservative.

There’s no telling. There is practically no talking about it, either, because media in the USA are just crazy wrong about almost everything.

I experienced an instance of this this morning. I have been hearing for months that President Zelenski is a heroic leader, and all his citizens are fiercely united in their patriotic commitment to drive Putin’s forces out of their country. But this morning I watched a video with man-on-the-street conversations about the referendum in Mariupol. In it Ukrainians themselves denounced Ukraine vehemently. Several were adamant to correct the Western misconception that Russia destroyed their homes and their city. One woman even blamed Biden and the “Anglo Saxons” for the war.

Here is the video:

Whatever you make of the video’s biases, professionalism or context, it is striking how profoundly its narrative differs from the one we’ve been hearing in our own media. Who knew, for example, there are Ukrainians who want to join Russia to get away from US?

Published by John Todd Roberts

Published

55 thoughts on “Who is Winning the War in Ukraine?”

  1. Have you ever seen a Jordan Klepper man on the street interview with Trump supporters? Every country has all kinds of people with all kinds of opinions. This fellow’s opinions are just that and not much more.

    Russia suffered a major setback when Ukraine took back in days what it had taken Russia months to capture. Russia is now going through a lot of turmoil because Putin has been forced to draft 300,000 civilians to reinforce his military. Does that mean that Ukraine is “winning?” Well, yeah. It kind of does. Trump called Putin a “genius” because he was going to get a whole country for the price of a few sanctions. That is clearly not going to happen.

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    1. RE: “Does that mean that Ukraine is ‘winning?’ Well, yeah. It kind of does.”

      It’s hard to make the sale that Ukraine is “winning” when its personnel losses are so disproportionately large compared to Russia’s, or in the face of millions of Ukrainians wanting to join Russia. But the disconnect between propaganda and reality is exactly what the post tries to highlight.

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      1. “It’s hard to make the sale that Ukraine is “winning” when its personnel losses are so disproportionately large compared to Russia’s”

        Fake news. From Russia?

        Russia has hidden its casualty figures and has no free press to dig them out. Estimates by Western governments and organizations consistently find that it is Russia that is suffering disproportionate casualties.

        Beyond that, the real measure of who is “winning” is who is achieving their goals and who isn’t. Take our experience in Vietnam as a reference point.

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        1. RE: “Estimates by Western governments and organizations consistently find that it is Russia that is suffering disproportionate casualties.”

          Do you have a cite?

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          2. The Forbes article is a month old, so it doesn’t cover Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive. This is important because — as I have posted before — “During the current offensive, according to Ukrainian sources, Ukrainian troops are suffering at least 5 times the casualties of Russia and its allies.”

            https://sonar21.com/putin-and-his-army-on-the-ropes-again/

            Also, I question the Pentagon estimates. Back in June Ukraine-reported Ukrainian casualties totaled about 20,000 per month:

            https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point

            At that rate, Ukraine has had 60,000 casualties over the last three month, or roughly twice the Pentagon number Forbes reports.

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          3. Well, as I have stated the data from both sides is sketchy. So feel free to believe that Russia is mauling the Ukrainians, if that floats your boat. I don’t believe it. I think casualties have been heavy on both sides. Personally, I do not think that the Russians would be running away and abandoning planes, tanks, trucks, artillery and ammunition if they were dominating the battlefield as you believe.

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          4. RE: “if they were dominating the battlefield as you believe”

            Gimme a break. I have never expressed that belief.

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          5. “Gimme a break. I have never expressed that belief.”

            Any army that inflict 5 times as many causalities as it suffers IS dominating the battlefield and you have frequently expressed the belief that that is what Russia is doing.

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          6. RE: “Any army that inflict 5 times as many causalities as it suffers IS dominating the battlefield…”

            Don’t be ridiculous. Russian forces retreated from the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv. That they exacted heavy Ukrainian casualties in the process means that it is foolish to describe Ukraine as “winning” the attack. Retreating is the opposite of “dominating the battlefield.” But suffering disproportionate casualties — as Ukraine has done — is also the opposite of “winning” the counteroffensive.

            I have stated on many occasions that Ukraine cannot prevail against Russia as a simple matter of military math, and I have provided the technical and theoretical reasons why this is so. It is really sad to see dupes in the USA expressing their opinions in this sphere by proclaiming false “truths.”

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          7. “It is really sad to see dupes in the USA expressing their opinions in this sphere by proclaiming false “truths.”

            You are the full-time “dupe” around here. You are a dupe for Trump and you are a dupe for Russian propaganda. There is no LIE too big or conspiracy theory too ridiculous for you to not eagerly swallow whole.

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          8. ” It is really sad to see dupes in the USA expressing their opinions in this sphere by proclaiming false “truths.””

            You do it with RUSSIAN and pro-Putin propaganda with so much regularity, it proves the Geritol is working.

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  2. As long as you believe the videos, then they have done their job.

    There are lots of folks that think Trump was sent by God. Trump even referenced that himself in that he is number two, after Jesus.

    So we can interview 100 believers in 50 states, and that would seal the deal that Americans believe Trump is divinely inspired and appointed. Seal the deal for the believers, that is.

    You don’t believe any media other than Putin’s propaganda spreaders. Your choice of course.

    I won’t bother to point out the folly. But I am saddened that there are Americans so willing to toss our country aside in favor of autocratic messaging.

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    1. RE: “You don’t believe any media other than Putin’s propaganda spreaders.”

      I’m flattered, I suppose, to be considered so important.

      RE: “I won’t bother to point out the folly.”

      You should take the trouble. I took the trouble to share a quality article and provide an illustration of its thesis. Is criticizing me personally the best you can do?

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    1. I didn’t take it personally. I just note that it is illogical to make me the issue or to assert that the sources in my post are Russian propaganda without proof.

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      1. You post without proof as if the videos are prima facie evidence.

        Here is the deal. Propaganda videos by Russia are not meant to influence world leaders and their intelligence agencies. Rather, they get spread by some, like yourself, to varying audiences. Here, for example, you have an audience of a few dozen perhaps. A handful could repost, and so on down the line. So an initial audience of a few thousand becomes a million. And like all efforts at propaganda, if so many believe it, it must be true.

        Refutation is futile. Either the disbeliever is lying, naive or working for the world cabal of (fill in your favorite here). And then the goal post may shift…again.

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        1. RE: “You post without proof as if the videos are prima facie evidence.”

          I assert that the video I posted IS prima facia evidence. As I wrote in the post: “Whatever you make of the video’s biases, professionalism or context, it is striking how profoundly its narrative differs from the one we’ve been hearing in our own media.”

          Do you deny that the video’s narrative differs from the US media narrative? If not, then tell us why the video doesn’t deserve consideration. Not vaguely, but specifically. That’s what I am asking.

          To me, I see Ukrainian citizens in the video saying things I have never heard on Fox News or read in the WSJ, things that Putin haters in this Forum seem willing to ignore. I don’t claim that the video represents “the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth,” but I do claim that the different point of view it describes deserves to be taken seriously.

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  4. What amazes me is that so many people are eager to believe the olive T-shirt guy is for real.

    I mean really, does he have a closet full of those shirts? He even greets foreign dignitaries in the same shirt. It’s a costume intended to imply he just stepped away from the battle for a moment to get interviewed by the press.

    I don’t think he went to QE2’s funeral, but if he had, it would have been in that shirt.

    When someone is trying that hard to create a false image, why would you believe anything else?

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    1. “What amazes me is . . .”

      “The Olive T-Shirt Guy?” Again? Really?

      Zelensky is an effective war-time leader risking his life every day and you obsess about his attire? Weird. Maybe he understands that a Brooks Brothers suit would be less effective in communicating his message of resolve and shared sacrifice? Putin wears a suit. Look how shitty morale is in his army.

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      1. It’s still phony, If he wants to have solidarity with the troops, then go out there and lead the battle.

        But wearing a costume while staying far from the lines is just theater.

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        1. Come on Don, your “get off my lawn” attitude is showing. Presidents don’t lead in battles. Never have here or elsewhere. That makes no sense whatsoever. His job is to secure materiel, support, boost morale, set policies, run the country.

          Consider yourself a member of the “lucky sperm club” that you were born here. Never having to fight for your homeland means you know little about what that entails.

          I get the idea that you would prefer an autocrat so long as business thrives, their owners don’t complain and the persecuted are not your kind. Toss in vigilante gangs to “keep the peace”. So much simpler, no? No “woke crap”, arrest the homeless, no “grooming”, low taxes, no meddlesome environmental issues, and no pesky elections where the unwashed might participate and skew the results.

          Trains run on time, too. Just remember, the autocrat may not always be your favorite.

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          1. You get a lot of strange ideas.

            I’m the one who wants minimal government tightly controlled by the Constitution.

            But I don’t want to be played.

            Mr Olive T-shirt doesn’t have to lead his troops into battle, but he doesn’t get to fake it either. Military dress is not appropriate for non-combatants.

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        2. “But wearing a costume while staying far from the lines is just theater.”

          Sure, it is “theater.” Just like Patton’s flamboyant uniform and ivory handled pistols were “theater.” It is a deliberate choice to send a message – “theater.” And it seems to work. Ukrainian morale is very good. Russia’s is very bad.

          I think his “staying far from the lines” is a bit of an exaggeration. Sure, he is not a front line combatant but with an unknown number of Russian assassination teams out to end his life he is in as much danger as anybody. And that is every single day.

          And here is something else you may not know about him – no bone spurs!

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          1. So, other than theater(as in “Wag the Dog” what is the reason for the quasi military dress?

            Clearly we are being played.

            How is it you think wearing the Olive shirt is going to help him evade assassins? Dressing the same way every day would be the worst way to do that.

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          4. “How many times have I written that Putin is a thug?”
            Uh, the same number of times that you have made it clear that you don’t care because he is not a Muslim.

            “But Zelinsky is a fraud, a front man for Ukrainian oligarchs. And not a soldier.”
            Really? Which oligarchs? I thought he was a CIA stooge? LOL! But, glad to see you are an equal opportunity hater – you will hate anybody who stands up against fascism.

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          6. “Which oligarchs? Ask Hunter.”
            So, you are just bloviating. I already knew that.

            Your two biggest heroes – Putin and Trump – are fairly described as “fascists.” They tick just about all the boxes. And, yeah, I don’t like them.

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          7. Then you’re looking at the wrong boxes.

            Biden is far closer to fascism than Trump. No one else has tried to spend half a trillion dollars without authorization by Congress. And no one in US history ever has tried to use the DOJ as his secret police. not even Nixon.

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          10. “ But Zelinsky is a fraud, a front man for Ukrainian oligarchs. And not a soldier.”

            You know this how? Perhaps some of the top secret documents Trump stole and sold to Putin got leaked?

            Zelensky is not a soldier, that much we know. He is a president, however, with more guts than most people in the world. He could have left, but said that he didn’t want plane tickets, but rather ammunition. He is hunted. He is effectively on the front lines every day since Kyiv gets missiles on a recurring basis. And he is trying very hard to keep Ukraine from becoming another lackey state for one of the most, if not the most, murderous and brutal dictator in recent history. A dictator who murders critics around the world with impunity. Slaughtered thousands of Chechnyan’s, Syrians, Ukrainians, and his own people.

            Admired by few with a notable exception of our very own ex-president who loves him, calling him a genius.

            But you only see an olive green tee shirt. What a travesty.

            IMO

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          12. So how do you know his intentions by his wardrobe?

            Really? I have heard of people meeting other people in business or at events and getting a bad impression by observing manners, general appearances, conversation and eye contact.

            But you have never met the man, talked to him, or made eye contact. You know no oligarchs in Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere, or do you?

            You have never taken up arms, fought to protect our nation or been attacked by missiles and artillery.

            I suspect you are just grumpy about the West helping to keep Putin in his own land where he does enough damage.

            I will give points for originality in that you are the first I have seen to base moral fitness on a tee shirt in a war zone. A war zone that effectively encompasses the entire nation. And you are upset because the man doesn’t wear a suit while trying to lead a fight for survival.

            Since you have repeated this observation a few times, I would guess you have some thought pattern to support it.

            I suppose.

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          13. He wears that olive T-shirt when aids around him are in business suits, he wore it when his wife was with him in designer clothes.

            It is a carefully chosen costume to project a false image.

            Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. He gets zero credibility from me.

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          14. “ It is a carefully chosen costume to project a false image.”

            What if President Zelensky sported a thick head of orange hair, a long red tie and elevator shoes to make him taller? Better?

            I’ll admit that I have fallen for the right wing tactic of diversion and distraction via a wardrobe choice by a country’s leader. Nice work.

            But it has been fun here too.

            PS: Where did you read about the tee shirt kerfuffle? This is the first I have seen from anyone that it is an issue with regards to the proper attire for defending a sovereign nation from invasion.

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          15. I didn’t read about the T-Shirt, I recognized it for the sham it is after the first month of the invasion and the coordinated propaganda campaign (Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island and so on)

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          18. Churchill was, in fact, a soldier, One of my favorite quotes came from his Boer War service.

            “There are few things in life more exhilarating than to have been fired upon without effect,”

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          19. The silly pettiness of you people is unmatchable.

            Ukraine is fighting for its survival against terrible odds, you favor the aggressor, so you attack a courageous leader standing in your way for his shirt. If one wanted to make you look childish and ridiculous you could not make up anything better.

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        3. “If he wants to have solidarity with the troops, then go out there and lead the battle.”

          Putin goes first! At least Zelensky has visited battle torn areas. Putin sits in his high castle at the Kremlin and orders another 300,000 citizens to do his bidding. And they are none too happy about it.

          And the insults you keep throwing at Zelensky says a lot more about you than him.

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          1. So, you’re ok with our foreign policy being manipulated by cheap theatrics.

            Where is the US national interest in driving Russia into the arms of China and Iran?

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          2. “So, you’re ok with our foreign policy being manipulated by cheap theatrics.”
            Have you stopped beating your wife?

            “Where is the US national interest in driving Russia into the arms of China and Iran?”
            The essential struggle in the world now is between democracy and fascism. It is very much in our national interest that democracy prevail.

            Besides, they don’t want him. Nobody wants to partner up with losers.

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          3. Russia has been courting Iran and China for decades. THere is nothing new here.The only difference is our current leadership isn’t kissing Putin’s horse riding backside.

            As far as our foreign policy goes, we are doing what we have always done: Supporting democracy where it is growing.

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  5. Something you and the rest of us Americans know nothing about: fighting for your homeland against a direct invasion.

    No reason for Zelenskyy to be dressed in coat and tie. He is in charge of defending Ukraine in a real war.

    He has gone to the fronts on occasion to bolster moral when things are going rough.

    Is your comment another one of those like Obama’s smirk or Harris’ cackle? A churlish observation. The ex-president is notorious for his pointless insults about looks. Hard to out-Trump Trump, but his admirers and sycophants try anyway.

    Meanwhile, back to Putin who has thousands upon thousands of lives engraved on his samovar over decades. You want to drop Iran because of an egregious act of brutality by its police, yet excuse a bloody dictator as being a rightful subjugator of bordering countries.

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    1. RE: “No reason for Zelenskyy to be dressed in coat and tie. He is in charge of defending Ukraine in a real war.”

      No? Well, one reason might be to court support from people like Dr. Tabor — or me. I think Zelensky is a puppet or a clown. His weird wardrobe only confirms his lack of seriousness to me.

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      1. If your position on the invasion of Ukraine is dependent upon sartorial decisions by Zelensky, then there is an obvious lack of seriousness on your part, not the Ukrainian president.

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        1. You are funny. Just the other day you were flattered because I thought you were the target of Russian propaganda. Insinuating, of course, that you were insignificant in the war of words among nations.

          And now, Zelensky should dress up to impress you and Don.

          Perhaps you should write a letter to the man and tell him to dress up or give up?

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      2. Let me know when YOU are leading the fight to protect your country.

        And the CLOWNS were in and around the Capitol on Jan 6th, dressed VERY similarly to who you accuse of being a puppet or clown. They are much clearer portraits of that sentiment then the duly elected leader of a sovereign nation that has been attacked for no earthly reason except, well , Putin.

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        1. Not to mention our ex-president and his two foot orange comb over, red ties down to his knees and elevator shoes. But that was expected considering the package the wardrobe was trying to camouflage.

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